Iraq War & a Cascade of Regional Chaos

As the American attempted occupation of Iraq looms, regional fault lines are beginning to also bode ill. In Turkey, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, a clear trend is emerging that a cascade of instability is becoming more likely. For the US, staying in any semblance of control during wildly unpredictable events is going to be like walking on logs in whitewater.

 

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Somehow I don’t think so. If we check the amount of armament US exported to those countries during the last two years, the amount of financial support and behind door agreements. It is clear that the biggest mistakes that those three (pro-Americans) are making, it is to think that US will establish itself in Iraq and place pressure over the other Arab countries.

For the Saudis it will be good for business and handy to maintain at check internal turmoil’s. For Jordan, and improved standard of living while radicalizing small groups of extremist and strong US intervention in finalizing the Israeli state. And for Turkey, a protection against the Kurds while emphasizing more its role in Middle East.

Egypt, Syria and Iran are going to have a hard time to find a role in the new Middle East Order.
Palestinians will be forced to accept a small region, much like an Indian Reserve, were we have a lot of practices how to establish, by financial support to shut up.
Any complaints??
:m:

 

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"It is clear that the biggest mistakes that those three (pro-Americans) are making, it is to think that US will establish itself in Iraq and place pressure over the other Arab countries.
Are you seriously suggesting that the US will not?

"For the Saudis it will be good for business..."
Throwing OPEC and pricing on it's ear when Saudi is in the red and facing violent unrest? Fundamentalists countering the Cowboy gospel of pre-emption? Don't think they'll try some of their own?

"For Jordan, and improved standard of living..."
What? Please explain the mechanism for that one.

"for Turkey, a protection against the Kurds"
The Kurds will escalate into WAR with Turkey after Saddam.

"Egypt, Syria and Iran are going to have a hard time to find a role..."
Providing millions of Mujaheddin for as many generations as it takes? That's not a role?

"Palestinians will be forced to accept a small region, much like an Indian Reserve, were we have a lot of practices how to establish, by financial support to shut up.
Any complaints??"

:bugeye: What a beautiful world you and the Busheviks are shaping. Let's all lie down and take it.

- ... NOT :bugeye:

 

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hypewaders;

US will not be making a mistake IF all turns according to plan, in fact taking over Iraq and sustain little rebellion from the Iraqi population is not all that difficult. There’s no big language barrier, they are not religiously fanatics, and if medical care, food and school system is well developed and managed under a provisional Iraqi authority (Puppets) as well as regional control zones. The entire post-colonization of Iraq, can turn quite nicely.

Now, regardless of how it goes, the following countries Saudi, Jordan, Turkey & Egypt will only assist instead of adding to turmoil. The only condition to attain and maintain that, is not Americananized prostitution houses should appear in the horizon at all.

Kurds can not escalate a war, as much as they would like to profit from all of this and finally establish own state. Unfortunately the Europeans don’t support that, Iran would never support that, and Syria, the only one supporting the Kurdish case, we not be able to unilaterally get involved on the Kurdish case.
Turkey is the only one that will take advantage of it, and since the Kurdish 3 mayor ethnical groups never had much of harmony, Iran will clean their hand like Poncious Pilatus.

Yes, Jordan doesn’t have a fanatic population and in view of history they are pro-western. A convenient effort in agriculture modernization as well as medium size industry will keep the population at check, of course as long as Iraq doesn’t turn into a second Vietnam.

Part-II will continue tomorrow

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Microzoft is seeing the big picture. I think his analysis is basically the stragegy playing out between the US and its Arab, Muslim and European allies.

If there wasn't anything imaginably good to come out of such a scenario the US axis wouldn't be playing it out before our eyes, and behind the scenes.

If the region is willingly participating in the grand scheme, what of the liberal left in the West? Fearing for its own relevence on the world stage, too?

Statusquoniks. Left makes right!

So what if the guy living next door is beating the crap out of his wife and family? 4th Ammendment! It none of our business. Don't call the cops. If they come to arrest the neighbor they might accidently run over my dog out in the yard. Let's turn up our stereo's so we can't hear the kids screaming.

After that, what's Left?

 

Microzoft: "taking over Iraq and sustain little rebellion from the Iraqi population is not all that difficult. "
Historically, that's true if you're talking about installing a dictatorship. However, the region is clearly tiring of them. The deposing of the Shah was a velvet revolution compared to what may be in store for several large family-run businesses, er, I mean countries in the Gulf neighborhood.

"the following countries Saudi, Jordan, Turkey & Egypt will only assist instead of adding to turmoil"
Turkey and Egypt are sycophants, that's the real "prostitution" that is raising righteous anger from all quarters. The House of Saud is made of cards, and is yammering in highly nervous doubletalk about their relationship with Washington.

"Kurds can not escalate a war..."
Have you ever met a Kurd? Iran is supporting their favorite Iraqi Kurds right now. Syria is "unilaterally involved" right now supplying theirs. The Kurdish question has been a bottled-up incendiary the region has been cringing about (and slaughtering Kurds about) since Ottoman days. Dubya is about to uncork all that the Brits and Baathists have held in nervous check since then, in the vacuum between Turkey and Dubyastan. Why do you think Turkey has palmed astronomical secret payoffs, and is quietly mobilizing?

"Jordan doesn’t have a fanatic population..."
OK. Black September was just a little family misunderstanding. I wish only the best for King Abdullah, but he is in an extremely precarious position. If it gets worse for him (especially if Sharon's ambitions roll on) it would be the kiss of death to be shored up by the Americans.

"A convenient effort in agriculture modernization as well as medium size industry will keep the population at check"
So we give the little primitives some of our western magic, and they'll be starry-eyed, is that it? Jordanians are proud, progressive, far more savvy about the world than you seem to think.

Microzoft, are we really both talking about the same Middle East, on the same Planet Earth? Do you work in the Bush cabinet?

Looking forward to Part 2

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Mr. G, the US has the leading responsibility for the modern Mideast status quo. We are unmistakably ignoring the big picture by barging into the occupation of Iraq without understanding the ripple effect it will have.

Please substantiate any pronouncements about how happy our friends in the region are with our restructuring plans. Please elaborate on just what that structure will be. Please show who publicly support overt American/Israeli hegemony in the Middle East. Prove you are not blindly defending an agenda in Washington that you don't understand.

 

And who, with your talk of "American/Israeli hegemony in the Middle East" do you work for?

[edited to remove snide/unwarranted comment - CA]

 

hype:

Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Oman, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Turkey, Iraqi Kurds (both major flavors), Iraqi Sunnis (exhiles), and by their silence: Iran & Syria.

We see France, Germany, Belgium and Russia busting facial blood vessels each night on the news from the UN, but we aren't seeing Iraq's neighbors busting theirs. Deafening silence, in fact.

And anticipating you're necessarily gonna have to resort to the "those are not democracies truly representing their people" argument: as I recall, only about 15% of the UN is populated by democracies; the rest of the UN is peopled by representatives of un-elected/pseudo-elected dictators, kings/queens and the upper 1% of the population of each of those other countries. Coalitions likely are always going to include such governments.

Who's not understanding?

 

Mr. G, The Mideast governments you mentioned are variously scared speechless and/or bought off by the Busheviks. Their relative official silence is far from a silence of the lambs- these regimes are battening down the hatches for a storm that several among them will not survive- they are certainly not in gleeful anticipation of the severe economic/political stress that is coming. The Busheviks will not be herding Mideastern countries around like sheep after the occupation begins. It will more resemble an attempt to herd frantic angry cats, and it will be a very unpredictable fracas.

C-A "American/Israeli hegemony" is exactly how Arab public opinion is going to perceive this new Bushevik crusade, and is the reason cascading changes in the Mideast will not be to American (or Israeli) liking.

 

i suggest the person who turns out to be the most wrong address the rest as master. a price has to be paid for this wanton display of opinion!

 

There is a tendency running in this thread that anyone opposing the Bush Anschluss in the Middle East is a "statusquonik" defending the sad present state of affairs.

The question here is whether the operation is going to kill the patient. The Busheviks will attempt to forcibly implant an incompatibility. From the local perspective, the pompous visiting Doctor is a quack, and the whole ward is going to go berzerk on him.

"Yer either with us or against us" is infecting so much thought and discussion. The occupation of Iraq is an ominous Pandora's box: That's not just some idle cynical uninformed thought. We are discussing a major policy shift in a very touchy and critical part of the world, that has diplomats, generals, and analysts with considerable Mideast experience cogitating with discipline and exclaiming "Holy Sh!t!".

American interests would not presently be served by democratizing the Mideast, even were it possible for us to do it. A majority disagrees with our agendas in energy and regarding Israel. In a flourish of shock and awe, the Busheviks think that they can herald a new era of their choosing. Well that ain't necessarily so. After I chill for a while, I'm gonna come back and explain, again, why - with links to colorful pictures, for the folks who really look up to their genius Commander-in-Chief.

 

Yes, we are exactly talking about the same Middle East and on the only planet Earth and Not! I’m not working in the Bush cabinet. …And it is the wrong joke at the wrong time!

Realized that we are just discussing our hypothesis at what or what not may happen. As such, there is no correct or incorrect, wrongs or rights. I have lived in Middle East and in particular Iraq. Of cause that doesn’t make my prediction any more accurate, but I base my view in that region based on my observation over there as well.

 

Lull in fighting unlikely after Saddam

Although scantily reported, there is a likelihood that after Bghdad and Tikrit are secure, American forces may already be engaged, or face engagement with Kurdish and Shiite elements opposed to US plans. Especially troubling is the likelihood that a Turkish/Kurdish war may immediately be rekindled as the US invasion begins. if that isn't enough, the Administration seems to have cold feet about the Shiite majority in Iraq, with its affinity for Iran. Meanwhile, the Bush administration is not preparing the American public for contingencies more complex than a jubilant liberation of a grateful and united Iraq. So many things are not adding up here, that the fundamental competency of the Bush administration in understanding the dynamics in play must be seriously called into question.

 

DIM BULB abruptly orders a "TIME OUT!"

Pity poor US prez "DIM BULB," so enthused with the idea; after much arm twisting and billion$ of US taxpayer dollars paid in the form of bribes, the "Muslim" country of Turkey, will not cooperate with him in making the Middle East a safer place for his LIKUDNIK "Man of Peace," and that 1/2 acre of Zionist hell's IDF killers of Palestinian men, women and children with US weaponery; in violation of the US Export Arms Act.

With the Turkish parliament turning thumbs down to the US idea of using Turkish soil to attack Iraq from the north today, DIM BULB must be feeling livid about "democracy" taking root in the Turkish parliament at this late date, huh folks? <Tsk><Tsk><Tsk>.

Result: George W. Bush ( turned into a sorry army of one)--vs--Saddam Hussien (a very greatful dictator--a-la-Masharaff). Hey, maybe now Saddam can declare Iraq a democracy ( like terrorist Israel has ) and declare a moral victory!

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Well, DIM BULB, ole boy, maybe now you can recall your "Tequila" twins from camp Lajune where they have been hard at work--training with their trusty M-16's--for their participation in the US effort to liberate the people of Iraq--the ole lady, Laura Bush will feel relieved at not putting the twins in harms way, huh? Jajaja.

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Oh well!

TheAZCowBoy,

PS: Hummm, maybe Turkey's refusel to take billion$ in bribes from DIM BULB's CHICKEN HAWK administration will mean that there will be more money for our schools so that "no child will be left behind," as our Whitehouse terrorist promised when he was champagning for the presidency, huh folks?

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PPS: A special "Congrats" to Tirik Aziz, for his tremendous poltical victory at the cost of a few sledge hammered "short" range IRBM's!

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Hypewaders :

How much does it matter?

 

Marquis, that's what the British were cynically asking about many of their colonies (including America) before they lost them.

 

Stepping back during a contemplative moment for a panramic view of the Big Picture, two words come to mind: Puncuated Equilibrium.

 

It's punctured equilibrium.

 

hypewader

Punctuated Equilibrium Speciation - A group of creatures gets isolated from the rest of their species. They can evolve easily, because they are a small group. Later, they spread and replace their parent species.

Mr. G

The Amish and the Mennonites come to mind.

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