View Full Version : Fail safe


fishtail
06-02-07, 10:50 AM
If there was some kind of crop failure in one of the major countries, Russia
for example, could the worlds grain production cover the loss?

Baron Max
06-02-07, 01:04 PM
Probably not immediately. Grain and such crops take time to grow, ya' know? I doubt that other nations has such a huge surplus of grain just lying around.

But an unqualified answer to your question ...yes, easily. The USA and Canada could probably do it on their own.

Baron Max

fishtail
06-02-07, 01:26 PM
Probably not immediately. Grain and such crops take time to grow, ya' know? I doubt that other nations has such a huge surplus of grain just lying around.

But an unqualified answer to your question ...yes, easily. The USA and Canada could probably do it on their own.

Baron Max

Yes, i should have asked about the logistics.

So the Russians cry, help we have no grain, it has been destroyed by_______, just when we were about to harvest it.

I am amazed that the US and Canada have that ability.

Oli
06-02-07, 01:40 PM
The USSR used to import most of its grain from the West even during the Cold War.
One of the biggest fears of NATO planners was a crop failure in the USA, causing food shortages in the USSR and giving a "reason" for invasion by the Soviets to secure more arable land and food stocks.

fishtail
06-02-07, 01:45 PM
Wow, i did not know that, the post was just an idle thought but, is such a crop failure even possible?

Oli
06-02-07, 01:53 PM
Wow, i did not know that, the post was just an idle thought but, is such a crop failure even possible?

Possible? Certainly. There have been crop failures in the past, and changing weather patterns today are causing concern.
It's (almost) certain to happen at some point.

Read-Only
06-02-07, 02:01 PM
Possible? Certainly. There have been crop failures in the past, and changing weather patterns today are causing concern.
It's (almost) certain to happen at some point.

It seems to be happening already. Parts of the world didn't receive the usual monsoon rains last season and there was considerable crop loss as a result.

Baron Max
06-02-07, 02:09 PM
It seems to be happening already. Parts of the world didn't receive the usual monsoon rains last season and there was considerable crop loss as a result.

Yeah, the western, grain-producing states, of the USA have been experiencing drought conditions for several years now, and it seems that this year will be no different. And oddly enough, too much rain will ruin the crops just as much as a drought.

Baron Max

fishtail
06-02-07, 02:22 PM
It seems to be happening already. Parts of the world didn't receive the usual monsoon rains last season and there was considerable crop loss as a result.


Heck, are we talking major % of out put or manageable loss?

Read-Only
06-02-07, 02:38 PM
Heck, are we talking major % of out put or manageable loss?

From what I've read, it's pretty serious. I'm sure there are other articles that point out the losses even more clearly but here's one that tells some of India's problems: http://209.85.165.104/search?q=cache:GSPO_T3HkVMJ:www.thehindu.com/2004/07/30/stories/2004073006480100.htm+%22monsoon+failures%22&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=8&gl=us

fishtail
06-02-07, 03:00 PM
http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/201

Even more complexity, bio fuels driving up prices.

Read-Only
06-02-07, 03:13 PM
http://earthtrends.wri.org/updates/node/201

Even more complexity, bio fuels driving up prices.

Correct. Not only has ethanol production increases led to higher prices for corn-based human food, it's increased pressure (and prices) on animal foodstocks AND resulted in taking land out of production for wheat, rice, soybeans and other cereal crops. Farmers in Mexico have burned their fields that produced the feedstock for tequila and have planted them in corn also.

The world's consumers are just now barely feeling the increase in food costs because of this and it will continue to become MUCH worse in the next few years. And underneath it all, as you mentioned, cereal food supplies will continue to dwindle.

Yes - that's serious stuff!! Now add a major weather-related crop failure on TOP of that...

Ziazan
06-06-07, 02:32 AM
I think the answer is yes. The remain grain can cover the loss.

Read-Only
06-06-07, 02:44 AM
I think the answer is yes. The remain grain can cover the loss.

Exactly what remaining grain? From where?

kenworth
06-06-07, 03:04 AM
arent there quite a lot of farmers in both england and america being paid NOT to grow crops in order to control prices?

Read-Only
06-06-07, 03:41 AM
arent there quite a lot of farmers in both england and america being paid NOT to grow crops in order to control prices?

I can't address the situation in England but in the U.S. that practice has been abandoned for quite while with the exception of rice and cotton. The current program (called Soil Bank) is due to expire soon and there seems to be little push to renew it.

pjdude1219
06-06-07, 04:22 AM
the ruining of the crop in the western us would be devastating those states have the capability to produce enough food to feed most of the world.

fishtail
06-06-07, 05:34 AM
arent there quite a lot of farmers in both england and america being paid NOT to grow crops in order to control prices?

In England farmers are paid to do absolutely nothing with their land.