Electric Cars are the Future

Mod Hat In another forum there exists for long time a thread called "Electric cars are a pipe dream," which has covered much ot what has been posted here. Especially wrt H2 "fuel" & the reasons why battery swap is never going to be competitive (except possibly for large owned fleets of identical cars, like taxis) -See: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2722369&postcount=1536 et al.

There are dozens of photos of cars, etc. in that other thread, all post made here must relate to economic considerations.


Looks like the fundamental limitations of electric cars have now been overcome. "Better Place" has struck a deal in Israel (and perhaps Japan) to install dozens of battery changing stations at regular gas stations alongside the diesel and gasoline pumps. They work kinda like an automatic carwash. Drive in. Wait. And a 1 min 10 sec later you drive out with a fully charged battery. Faster than pumping gas.

When has "going electric" ever reduced the quality of a thing?

http://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=better+place+electric&aq=f

That is one solid solution. But what are the drawbacks, if any? They say it's affordable, but we know that electric cars are already more expensive than regular cars. Will this service be more costly still? Does anyone have any figures?

 

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Interesting idea. It's actually what we do with most battery powered devices anyway, swap them out and continue on.

Quality control and keeping up with demand at each station (recharging times and number of batteries) would be issues, as well as making sure they are tamper proof. Also, you'd need a standardized battery throughout the industry, just like we have now with most things (C, D, AA). And of course, make the process as dummy proof as possible, like a car wash.

On another video they also mention having recharge stations in parking areas, so you don't even bother with plugging something it. Just park, shop, work or eat, and come back out with more energy.

 

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Fuel cell vehicles (FCVs) have the potential to significantly reduce our dependence on foreign oil and lower harmful emissions that cause climate change. FCVs run on hydrogen gas rather than gasoline and emit no harmful tailpipe emissions. These vehicles are in the early stages of development, and several challenges must be overcome before these vehicles will be competitive with conventional vehicles. However, the potential benefits of this technology are substantial.

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Why not just use batteries?

Storing & retrieving electricity from batteries is ~95% efficient. Fuel cells not so efficient.

 

Just mandating interchangeable batteries that you swap is a working solution. I like things that work.

 

Batteries today aren't very officiant and take awhile to recharge and not many places can recharge either when you arrive there. Then how long will those batteries last, a year maybe two, then what, pay over 5,000.00 to replace them all? No, batteries are not my way to think of the future because where do you put the old dead batteries after they can't be used any longer, more pollution.

 

Nope, batteries are recyclable, and would be recycled just like the much cheaper lead-acid batteries are today

http://blogs.cars.com/kickingtires/2010/04/lead-batteries-the-most-recycled-product-in-america.html

Arthur

 

Cosmic, your first few objections are the whole point of this new idea.

As for life of the batteries, just going by Prius ratings, which has been around probably the longest, they were warrantied for 8-10 years as they evolved, so that's an expected minimum. Future hybrids coming out will probably rate longer with better performance and less weight. The cost for them is about half of your estimate, and with this system, that will be spread over many users and years of usage fees.

The objection that I would still agree with is disposal and waste hazard. But given that a system like this widespread would make electric cars more convenient to use by providing an infrastructure that supports them, think of the elimination of pollution from the combustion engines removed from the road. The advantage might be on the electric car's side.

Fuel cells are another choice, but they suffer the same problem of lack of infrastructure. No one will buy a vehicle that has very limited fueling places. Now, if there was investment for hydrogen fueling across the country, then maybe they'd have an edge. One factor with hydrogen though, to make it feasible you'd have to generate hydrogen locally, and that would require electricity. The loss of efficiency for this translation might make this more expensive than simply charging batteries, especially if there's no appreciable range advantage.

 

That would simply drive up the cost of the car quite a bit and cost is already a very negative factor, and since there are no places where one can exchange the battery, the extra cost would buy you nothing.

A mandate like that would likely kill the Battery powered EV.

In the near future I can see cars with swappable batteries being used as fleet cars in dense city locations.

I'll wait to see how that "Better Place" network works out in Israel.

In that case you have to buy one of just two cars (and Renaults at that)

The basic passenger car goes for $41,000 with home charger
To use the swappable battery costs you $350 a month as long as you drive less than 12,000 miles.
That's a cost of $.35 per mile

http://www.betterplace.com/the-comp...ackages-in-europe-s-first-better-place-center

Now in Israel gas is very expensive, at $7.50 per gallon, so if you buy a comparable Prius it costs about half as much to buy ($22,000) and get's 50 miles per gallon, so assuming the price of gasoline in Israel were to double to $15 per gallon, the Prius would still be $.05 cent cheaper per mile to drive, and of course you would have about $20,000 less invested in the car.

Arthur

 

That's the biggest problem, Arthur. It's a big circle...you can't expect people to use something that needs a specialized infrastructure, but you can't expect that infrastructure to be built if there's nothing yet to use it.

I got the impression that this system was doing both, and being the first others would have to step in line and either do the same or make sure theirs is compatible (which would make more sense, why reinvent something when you can just pay a licensing fee).

 

@Rhaedas

Well, where do you dispose of the rechargeable batteries once they are used up?

The Prius doesn't work totally on batteries as this OP wants but uses the 1.8-liter gasoline engine (previously 1.5 liters) generates 98 hp, and with the added power of the electric motor generates a total of 134 hp (previously 110 hp). The larger engine displacement allows for increased torque, reducing engine speeds (RPM), which improves fuel economy at highway speeds.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Prius

 

The Prius was an example using the older technology, as it was among the first to be wide spread. Newer batteries have better performance and longer ranges. Some of the newer hybrid are claiming running total EV at up to 55 mph, so they're improving in many aspects.

I don't know about different battery types and recycling. Along with storage and weight I'd guess that there's also effort to make batteries that are less harmful and more recyclable as well.

 

Well so far it appears to only be on paper.
No swap sites have been built.
No cars have been sold. (they say 4th qtr this year)

As to other automakers jumping on board with this system?
Seems to me they would not help their sales as much as they would help Renault, so my guess is not so much, with one exception and that is for Urban use fleet vehicles.

Arthur

 

They are recycled.

http://www.toxco.com/aboutrecycle.html

Arthur

 

Pluggable Hybrid cars run on batteries. If they were made to be compatible with the battery-swapping stations, that might facilitate the growth of the network.

After a while, battery swapping would become less expensive because the stations would not need to stockpile as many batteries as there are cars, and they could charge the batteries during off-peak hours. The fees would decrease.

 

Why would a government saying to the manufacturers "You can make your car any way you like and your batteries out of whatever will work, but all the batteries have to be made in this specific shape and to fit this sort of connector" drive the cost up a lot?

A little, maybe. A lot?

I fail to see that. Explain please.

It really is a circular problem...as it would be if we didn't have gas stations.

 

Because not a single EV currently in production was designed with that in mind, indeed the batteries aren't even in one single unit, but multiple units strategically placed in the car for performance/weight, balance and cooling needs, which are unique to each car by the way, so to reengineer these cars to fit some government mandate (It would years for the US government to come up with a standard, and then a US standard would not necessarily apply to cars in the EU or Asia) and retool the manufacturing process after so few Volts and Leafs and Prius PEVs have been built would be quite expensive and thus would add more to the cost of the cars, which are already too expensive as it is. When you consider the complexity of an automated system that allows the battery to be disconnected quickly via an automated mechanism but NOT easily stolen (remember the battery is worth ~$10,000 or more), I suspect it will easily add hundreds of dollars to the cost of the car, even after the retooling costs have been absorbed.

Since there are ZERO swapping locations in the US, the additional cost would bring no benefit to the users at all and since there are no cars with swappable batteries, there is no reason for anyone to build a swap station. Let alone enough swap stations for someone to consider that when buying a car.

Now look at it from the other perspective.

Take a city like Houston:

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=29.76...29.762884,-95.383062&spn=0.85834,2.285156&z=9

How many swapping stations would you need for swapping to be of any practical use? (when the "out of way driving distance" isn't so far as to make it impractical)
120?
More? (Probably, Houston apparently has 1,239 gas stations, because at 10% of the number of battery swap stations as gas stations they would be far less convenient)

Well how many cars with swappable batteries would you need in the area for it to support 120 swap stations?
12,000?
More? (Probably a lot more, because that's only 100 swaps per station per day and I can't see how you could afford the rent for the retail location (have to be prime), the cost of electricity, the cost of the swapping equipment, the cost of the inventory on the surcharge for 100 swaps the cost of the attendents (two shifts at least). Consider that gas stations make only about 5 cents per gallon they pump, and they couldn't stay in business if they only refueled 100 cars per day.)

So even at these low numbers,

How long will it take for Houston to get to 12,000 EVs, with swappable?
10 years?
More?

Arthur

 

Apparently "Better Place" has come up with a working business model. So your questions are moot.

In the ten years you say it will take for the rest of the world to come up with a standard for swappable car batteries, Better Place could become a multinational megacorp, and the CEO one of the richest in the world.

Will it take 10 years? Maybe sooner?

 

Or maybe never (the company isn't traded publicly so we can't see how much red ink it is bleeding).

So touting it's success is a tad premature as the company has press releases going back more than 3 years and yet not one car has been sold to a Retail consumer.

Indeed, the first model that one can buy is STILL not available (and won't be from this company anyway) and won't be available till the end of this year when Renault claims they will begin to produce two models.

However the pricing is very high, at $39k and you don't own the battery, which is why the monthly cost is so high. Friggin $.35 cent a mile. (compared to a Prius which costs half the price and uses $.15 cent at $7.50 gal and can be filled up anywhere and about 1/3 as often)

So right now, even though governments are throwing money at these projects and companies like "Better Place", that doesn't mean they can stand on their own.

So far all I've seen is demo projects and those have been limited to what I already said was a possible use one exception and that is for Urban use fleet vehicles as in their Tokyo demo (which only involved the use of THREE custom made EV cars and a total of 8,000 miles per taxi over 4 months).

So that's a LONG way to go before swapable battery EVs are an available consumer choice.

Arthur

 

Apparently their website offers various price packages:

€2388 for < 20,000 km driven per year ($3377.34/20 Mm, or $0.17/km)

or

€4788 for < 40,000 km driven per year ($6771.66/40 Mm, or $0.17/km)

Or something like that. Basically, $0.28/mi, for either package.

But, for > 40,000 km driven per year, the they offer a flat rate of €4788. So, if you are on the road alot, there will be a price point where it is comparable in cost to a gas-electric hybrid of equivalent market value.

If your pluggable gas-electric hybrid SUV gets the equivalent of 30 mpg hwy driving, then at $4.54 per gallon of gas, it's costing you about $0.1513 per mile ($0.0908 per km) to drive.

The number of km you have to drive to make the swappable battery model worthwhile is:

$6771.66/x = $0.0908 per km

x = 74,578 km (44,747 mi) per year.

Which is probably only approximate, given assumptions about make/model of vehicle, etc and other stuff.

If you're a salesman that makes alot of housecalls, it might be worth it.

Also, let's also consider economies of scale: cost reductions due to mass production apply to both automobiles and electronics. Especially electronics. This is why I say that "going electric" has always made things better. Unlike mechanical things, electrical & electronic gadgets consist of millions or billions of identical parts. The economies of scale here have resulted in extraordinary price reductions in consumer electronics (eg. flat screen TVs) in just a few years.

If Better Place can reduce their prices by 10-fold, their product might be worthwhile for most drivers, not just fleets and travelling salespeople. Better Place will be the only game in town.