Economic forecasting at times must be intentionally wrong?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by alexb123, Sep 3, 2011.

  1. alexb123 The Amish web page is fast! Valued Senior Member

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    If an economic forecast were to predict a long term decline, it would bring about a decline, consumer and investor confidence etc. So surely, all of the future economic predictions and forecasts based on those predication are wrong? Further, almost all future prediction i.e life expectancy have economic forecasts factored in therefore if I'm correct on this then almost all these forecasts are wrong?

    Also does anyone know the scientific name for a measure that is effected by being measured?
     
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2011
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  3. Me-Ki-Gal Banned Banned

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    consumer confidence is only a gauge in consumer based economies . See the thing is we have reached a tipping point . A new mind set and for as far as I can see right now the new mind set will prevail . It is based in sustainability , Non consumption and recycling . Renewable energies and the likes . Also reduction in all paper goods and plastics . Then there is locally grown food by future farmers of America that learn organic farming methods on small plots of property to be consumed locally . So you start adding up the new paradigm and real quick start to figure out the world economy is looking to a degree unsustainable . Another word non consumption . Were necessity dictates purchase and discretionary income is no longer frittered away on useless crap . It is not good news for marketers at all . So in the end there is a good reason for lack of confidence . I am not buying shit and you can't make Me
     
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  5. Telemachus Rex Protesting Mod Stupidity Registered Senior Member

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    Macroeconomic forecasting is, to put it bluntly, BS. All i-banks have staff economists, and they are all spectacularly wrong from time to time (sometimes they are correct, but never in all the details...in essence if they guess the economy will improve, they always have a 50% chance of being right).

    I find econ fascinating (and have a Masters in it), but it is woefully inadequate to making real predictions in the macroeconomic context. My belief is that econ is in the stage that chemistry was at the time of the ancient Greeks. Eventually what little they understood was transformed from alchemy to chemistry and real scientific progress could being (not that alchemists--or economists--never figured anything out on an observational level).

    Eventually econ, as we understand it, will be supplanted by a more scientific and useful understanding that will be so radically different from what we have today that they'd be well advised to give it a new and different name.
     
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  7. alexb123 The Amish web page is fast! Valued Senior Member

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    Tele, you missed the main question. Do you think these stats are manipulated due to a downward prediction would create a downward trend etc?
     

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