I recently had to study the Driver's handbook in order to get a class M license to drive a motorcycle, and while studying a couple of sections, I was boggled by a couple of mathematical statistics/equations that were listed within the "drugs and alchohol" section. I was hoping someone could help me make sense of these: 1. on page 30 of the handbook, there is a paragraph that says Later down the same page, it reads: My first imediate thought is to say this is an error in the book. If the non-specific reader has a 50/50 chance of getting into a drunk driving accident, then the chances of everybody getting into an accident should also be 50% right? Then again, there may be a logical way to say that all individuals have a 50/50 chance, but everybody collectively is 40% and I'm missing something. 2. there is a section that defines a drink as 1 12oz glass of beer 1 4 oz glass of wine 1 1.5oz shot glass of hard liquor Of course, the first thing I started wondering was "um--- ok, so what if it's a higher proof alchohol? I mean- what if I'm drinking 1.5oz 200 proof moonshine or something? At any rate, given this info, what was the original alchohol content for the beer, the wine, and the liquor, and how would the amounts of alchohol be adjusted for higher/lower proof?
Maths is not my strong point but I believe Its due to the way the statistics are expressed and a result of people being involved more than once. In the first case: For every 1million driving americans - 500,000 drink driving accidents will occur In the second case: For every 1million driving americans - 400,000 will have atleast one accident See the difference? In the second case though a further 10% of accidents will arise from repeat offenders(as it were). So in summary: until(if ever) you are envolved in a drink driving accident your chance is only 40% of you ever having such, but after such an event you will have a 25% chance of contributing once more to the accident statistic.
These numbers are consistant with each drink containing 0.6 oz of pure alcohol.( that's with the liquor being 80 proof.) So if you drink 100 proof, that 1.5 oz shot glass would count as 1.25 drinks. A shot of Bacardi 151 would count as almost 2 drinks, and a shot of everclear would count as 2.5 drinks.
Forty percent of Americans will be involved in an alcohol related crash. That includes all Americans, including those who don't drive. You are reading a driver's handbook, which means that you intend to drive. The chances of being involved in any road accident are greater for people who drive, because statistically they spend more time on the road than those who don't. Therefore, your probability of being in an alcohol-related accident is higher than the general population, which includes people who don't drive. Nonetheless, even though this principle is true, I don't believe their figures. The percentage of the American people who don't drive is miniscule, and drops with every generation. In addition, public transportation continues to become rarer, so people who don't drive are ever more likely to be passengers in cars driven by others. The difference in risk between you and the general population cannot be so great. As usual, the government lies. Sometimes it's deliberate, other times it's due to incompetence. Sometimes the two coincide. They want to make a point so they don't bother to do the research or the arithmetic correctly. Never forget that "alcohol related crashes" include every crash in which one of the drivers tests positive for alcohol. They are not the same as "crashes caused by intoxication." Drivers who have been drinking get smashed into by other drivers through no fault of their own just like the rest of us. They also have mechanical failures. They also do stupid things like talk on cell phones just like they do when they're sober. America has been taken over by an army of nannies preaching health-safety-fitness-and-sobriety at any cost, regardless of the statistical validity of their risk analysis. It's become fashionable to demonize adult social drinkers, all of whom drive more safely than my mother, even though it's stone drunk teenagers and incorrigible alcoholics who cause the high-profile wrecks. Not to mention that the quality of driver training and the effectiveness of licensing tests in America are abysmal. Our people are the most incompetent drivers of any industrial nation, even when they're sober.
^^^Agreed. The tests and services provided by the department of motor vehicles could use improvement. BTW-- does anyone happen to know what the formula would look like for solving my beer/wine/liquor question (how did Janus come up with the results)?
You need to assume some % alcohol for beer and wine. I think 5% for beer and 15% for wine is reasonable - it's round figures, and perhaps a slight over-estimate for most full-strength beers and wines. 1 12oz glass of 5% beer contains 5% of 12oz = 0.6oz alcohol 1 4 oz glass of 15% wine contains 15% of 4oz = 0.6oz alcohol 1 1.5oz shot glass of 40% hard liquor contains 40% of 1.5oz = 0.6oz alcohol Wikipedia says that a standard drink in the US does indeed contain 0.6 fluid ounces of alcohol. Here in Australia, the "standard drink" (for labelling laws) contains 10grams alcohol, or 0.43oz. In the UK, a "standard drink" (actually termed "unit of alcohol") is even lighter - 10ml of alcohol, or 7.9g, or 0.34oz. This means that a can of Bud labelled "1 standard drink" for domestic distribution would have to be labelled "1.4 standard drinks" for export to Australia, and "1.8 units of alcohol" for export to the UK.
