A huge opportunity for China to achieve global status as a superpower of statesmanship in doing an Afghanistan-style regime change in the interest of world peace- with the backing of a U.N. mandate supported by the U.S.

Even if it meant temprarily establishing a government in the image of the Chinese Republic it could create a dramatic improvement - a paradigm shift- removing the nuclear threats, lead to a unified Korea, remove the threats for exporting nuclear weapons to Iran and terrorists and neutralize the military threat to the U.S. in the region.

China would be more susceptable to U.S. diplomacy to not supply arms and technical support to Iran so the dynamic in the Middle East might improve and at least the U.S. would not be distracted by nuclear threats by Kim Jong.

From what I've heard, China doesn't want a regime change in North Korea. Not because of any loyalty to the present regime, but because any regime change would probably cause a lot of problems. And as the closest neighbor of power, China would end up being the one dealing with it all.

They'd prefer North Korea to stay just as it is.
But quieter. And more complacent.

Theoretically yes, but at a huge cost not only to them, but South Korea and Japan (and anyone downwind).

Imagine the starving refugees that would pour out of North Korea as soon as they were allowed to....

No, I don't think the Chinese want that much responsibility over a bunch of Koreans.

Imagine a destablized Mexico, in turmoil and chaos. Then imagine the MILLIONS of Mexican refugees pouring across the border, Cuban boatlift style but with 800,000+ more of them, then imagine why China is taking such a whispered stance re: NK.

Well there are a couple of problems here

1) I read on Janes a while back that the Chinese military analysis’s found that while they could conquer NK – they could not do so in the time it would take for NK to rain hell down on SK. SO it was a bad idea.

2) Koreans don't much like Chinese. NK killed about 100000 children considered half-casts a couple years ago. South Korea’s Seoul is the only major city in I know of without a China Town – well because of China’s growing economy they decided to build one in 1999 but for the last few thousands years nadda - that tells you something.

3) Last year a couple Chinese academics made the claim that North Korea may have historically been a part of China. This seriously pissed off South Korea who demanded an apology. They are very weary of any Chinese expansionist ideas and I think you may find they side with the NK!


So I suppose I don't think it would be a good idea.

Imagine a destablized Mexico, in turmoil and chaos. Then imagine the MILLIONS of Mexican refugees pouring across the border, Cuban boatlift style but with 800,000+ more of them, then imagine why China is taking such a whispered stance re: NK.

Isn't that already so in the case of Mexico and the U.S.? ;)

- N

Isn't that already so in the case of Mexico and the U.S.? ;)

- N
Mmmm, not even close. Seen the population of Mexico and how many cross into the US each year? The number of illegals now is tiny compared to the total population. I think Mexico City is the 3rd or 4th largest city on Earth. So imagine the bottom dropping out and millions flood in at once, we could not stop it. China fears the same thing, though they can afford to soak them up, impoverished Chinese in rural areas would very likely resent that. On top of Michael's correct post about Koreans & Chinese not liking eachother.

Mmmm, not even close. Seen the population of Mexico and how many cross into the US each year? The number of illegals now is tiny compared to the total population. I think Mexico City is the 3rd or 4th largest city on Earth.

9th most populated city at 8.7 million. Heck, we have that many in California alone, or at least it sure feels like it. ;)

- N

Encouraged to see thoughtful posts in this thread by which I feel better informed. I see the possibility of China doing anything constructive about the situation is even more remote since they now appear to be backing out of any effective sanctions against N. Korea. They may even be stalling on six-party talks in order to keep U.S. threatened by Kim Jong so we are inclined to offer China trade and other incentives to restart talks.