S.A.M.
02-06-08, 10:48 AM
The effects of climate change on food security.
1. Increasing temperatures and aridity (ie decreasing availability of water) will result in lower yields for corn, wheat, rice, and other primary crops in the next two decades
2. Rising cost of food (especially after foodcrops are diverted for energy use) and decreasing per capita cultivated area (both due to increasing population and changes in soil quality as well as less area available for cultivation) will erode global food security.
3. In food-insecure regions, many farmers both consume their product and sell it in local markets. This exposes farmers to climate variations, because when they produce less their income goes down while their costs go up to maintain basic consumption. Large-scale hunger can ensue, even when there is sufficient food in the market that M.Ehas been imported from elsewhere.
4. Large scale droughts can affect national revenues, restricting the ability of small budget countries to purchase grain.
Mitigating factors:
-rising oil prices
-global grain market
-change in consumption patterns especially in growing economies
-use of technology by farmers
-food policies
Today, millions of hungry people subsist on what they produce. If climate change reduced production while populations increase, there is likely to be more hunger. However, it may still be possible to reduce world hunger through programs that feed the poor during crises and by investing in agricultural inputs such as fertilizer and improved varieties that can dramatically increase yields (2). Improved environmental monitoring and prediction systems can provide more effective early warnings, which may help governments to take action to preserve the thin agriculture production margins by which many make ends meet (7). Early warning systems involve extensive climate monitoring and prediction tools that could be used to enhance agricultural development programs. Crop insurance programs that are triggered by remote sensing data products may ensure farmer's livelihoods even in drought years. Investments in improved seeds and varietals and an augmented use of inorganic fertilizer (2, 6) can increase yields. Improved local governance, reduced developed-world agricultural subsidies, and more nuanced food aid policies that protect local markets could together produce rapid improvements in food access and availability, reducing hunger while providing for more people.
Despite these challenges, the very low agricultural productivity of food-insecure countries presents a great opportunity. Transform these agricultural systems through improved seed, fertilizer, land use, and governance, and food security may be attained by all.
references:
D. B. Lobell et al., Science 319, 607 (2008).
M.E. Brown et al., Science 319, 580 (2008)
1. Increasing temperatures and aridity (ie decreasing availability of water) will result in lower yields for corn, wheat, rice, and other primary crops in the next two decades
2. Rising cost of food (especially after foodcrops are diverted for energy use) and decreasing per capita cultivated area (both due to increasing population and changes in soil quality as well as less area available for cultivation) will erode global food security.
3. In food-insecure regions, many farmers both consume their product and sell it in local markets. This exposes farmers to climate variations, because when they produce less their income goes down while their costs go up to maintain basic consumption. Large-scale hunger can ensue, even when there is sufficient food in the market that M.Ehas been imported from elsewhere.
4. Large scale droughts can affect national revenues, restricting the ability of small budget countries to purchase grain.
Mitigating factors:
-rising oil prices
-global grain market
-change in consumption patterns especially in growing economies
-use of technology by farmers
-food policies
Today, millions of hungry people subsist on what they produce. If climate change reduced production while populations increase, there is likely to be more hunger. However, it may still be possible to reduce world hunger through programs that feed the poor during crises and by investing in agricultural inputs such as fertilizer and improved varieties that can dramatically increase yields (2). Improved environmental monitoring and prediction systems can provide more effective early warnings, which may help governments to take action to preserve the thin agriculture production margins by which many make ends meet (7). Early warning systems involve extensive climate monitoring and prediction tools that could be used to enhance agricultural development programs. Crop insurance programs that are triggered by remote sensing data products may ensure farmer's livelihoods even in drought years. Investments in improved seeds and varietals and an augmented use of inorganic fertilizer (2, 6) can increase yields. Improved local governance, reduced developed-world agricultural subsidies, and more nuanced food aid policies that protect local markets could together produce rapid improvements in food access and availability, reducing hunger while providing for more people.
Despite these challenges, the very low agricultural productivity of food-insecure countries presents a great opportunity. Transform these agricultural systems through improved seed, fertilizer, land use, and governance, and food security may be attained by all.
references:
D. B. Lobell et al., Science 319, 607 (2008).
M.E. Brown et al., Science 319, 580 (2008)