http://www.321energy.com/editorials/winston/winston020905.html

Unrestricted War: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America is a treatise for world domination written in 1999 by People’s Liberation Army Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. In order for China to become a dominant global power over the United States, the PLA emphasizes “The Final War over Resources”, must be won.

I have no idea the accuracy or truth of this, is it even partly true?

The New York Times has also weighed in stating that China’s actions threaten “the very stability of the global economy.”

haha, this statement alone proves the united states is full of crap. As if their being in control and wolfing down everything is good for "the very stability of the global economy." They mean what's good for them! They don't care old pedro gets paid pennies in some third world country or actually a third world country is sweatshopping for thier comfort.

The article: not true at all.

http://www.321energy.com/editorials/winston/winston020905.html

Unrestricted War: China’s Master Plan to Destroy America is a treatise for world domination written in 1999 by People’s Liberation Army Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui. In order for China to become a dominant global power over the United States, the PLA emphasizes “The Final War over Resources”, must be won.

I have no idea the accuracy or truth of this, is it even partly true?

I stopped reading when I came across this: "China’s buying it and consuming it in HUGE quantities. Last year they consumed nearly half of the world’s cement, twice the world’s consumption of copper, and nearly a third of the world’s coal, 90% of the world’s steel plus nearly every other commodity you can think of has been in greater demand by China.
"

Tell me: how can China - or ANY country, for that matter - consume twice the world's comsumption of copper??? That tells me immediately the the writer can't even keep his/her thinking straight AND most likely couldn't report anything accurately.

I believe the whole thing is just anti-China bunk.

... Tell me: how can China - or ANY country, for that matter - consume twice the world's comsumption of copper??? That tells me immediately the the writer can't even keep his/her thinking straight AND most likely couldn't report anything accurately.
I believe the whole thing is just anti-China bunk.I agree that the author is not always accurate (even illogical as he omitted "rest of the" in front of word "world" which would then make it true.)

More serious error, especially in Feb.2005, is:

"The Government of China is holding U.S. currency and Treasury notes in a $1.9 trillion Treasury bond trap. When they pull the trigger on their “primary weapon,” the dollar will crash and gold will break $600 in a heart beat and just keep going."

Even now China's reserves are "only" about 1.4 trillion and probably no more than one trilian of it is in US treasury issue or dollar deposits.

However to reject this important message (one I have been telling here since joining) because of these errors is a much worse error. This rejection of the obvious, is a form of mass psychological denial - possible for a few years more.

I have usually expressed nearly the same as:

China can not hope to defeat the US military power (although can probalbly destory NYC, Chicago, etc. with its nuclear ICBMs, so convention wars is both unlikely and would have no "victors," only losers on a scale never experienced in the history of mankind. I did not know that China had publised it plan for defeating the US economically - I deduced it from the facts available.

I think that even this "economic war" is not the main reason why China has accumulated such a large dollar claim against the US, and have long ago posted what I think is the reason: Taiwan.

The generation in power in China is the last that can errase the shame of its existance (safe face). It is difficult for westerners to understand how important this is. It is why China has as its first approach accepted the "one country/ two systems" policy. Why in the last few years enormous increases in spending for military equipment for the invasion has been made (that is "plan B" and probably will not be needed, but if it is, China recognizes that the US promise to frustrate any forceful re-integration must be neutralized. The threat to dump the dollar reserves is how it can be neutralized as that would seen US and EU into deep, prolonged depression, while also hurting China seriously now, but hardly at all in less than a decade.)

"Plan A" is going very well. It is to get the busness men of Taiwan to want re-integration. (It is the farmers of Taiwan who fear competion form the mainland who are opposed). For example, a decade ago, most of the world's computers were made in Taiwan. Today, none are - all those factories have moved to the mainland to enjoy the higher profits and the big domestic market. The last election on Taiwan was very close. The party against re-integration barely won - and then had to stage an assigination attempt few days before the election to get the farmers all angry enough to turn out to vote, etc. (Candidate was hit several times at close range, but so much gun power had been removed that only one bullet even broke the skin and shooter from inside a dense crowd was not caught. - was helpoed to escape.)

SUMMARY: US living beyond its income is loading the gun that China can fire when it wants to. At some point in not distant future, when China's internal demand and obligations to the suppliers of it raw materials, including oil, require the entire production capacity of its factories, China will tell US to: "Go to hell. We do not accept your worthless paper any more." China will by then have gotten most of its reserves deployed in other than US treasury issue. (The 3.2 billion buying of Blackstone's 4 billion IPO is one of the first steps of this by the new agency China has set up to do this.) The US and EU wioll be thrown into deep depression and their demand for oil etc. greatly recuced. (The fact the dollar will have lost most of its value means US can not buy the >$100/ barrel oil even if the demand were not depressed by the depression) This reduction in demand will keep the prices of oil, copper etc lower and more than compensate China for the loss in purchasing power of its reserves, which it could not get out of dollars before it "dumps the remainder" to initiate the depression that saves it money when paying for imports of raw material and energy.

Sorry do not have time to fix typos etc. will be at beach, not here probably soon.

China has been making long term deals for lots of resources. Can they back up those deals with force if necessary? The US globocop presence has created an illusion in international politics that force has little to no place among civilized nations. I think the recent actions in the Middle East point to the future in world resource negotiations.

Why is it always doom and gloom???
Why can't China and the USA reach to new heights together just as the USA and Japan and Europe have?

My guess is that the USA will remain hegemonic until at least until 2050. China will probably have another revolution in a long line of revolutions.

Michael

... Why can't China and the USA reach to new heights together just as the USA and Japan and Europe have?... Michaelthe "carrying capacity" of the Earth is finite. One can not be sure, but it seems highly likely that US, China, and India if at even half the material standard of living of current US (energy and material consumption rates) is well beyond the carrying capacity of the Earth. Thus, a conflcit is unavoidable as India and China increase their demands for energy and materials.

The standard of living of average American has already started downward, but credit and cheap imports from China, etc. has held up the consumption levels. Joe American has been going deeper into debt as has the US government to do this, but this is clearly nearing the end as home prices are declining (everywhere in US in real terms and most places in nominal terms.) China and many oil exporters are begining to avoid extending credit to the US and this is causing the purchasing power of the dollar to fall, which of course accelerated the decline in living standards (over and above the decline in Joe American´s real wages.)

Why is it always doom and gloom???
Why can't China and the USA reach to new heights together just as the USA and Japan and Europe have?

My guess is that the USA will remain hegemonic until at least until 2050. China will probably have another revolution in a long line of revolutions.

Michael

Maybe you are right. Maybe the US can maintain a trade deficit with China indefinitely.

Billy T,

I am not going to comment on the 'carrying capacity' of the Earth because my guess is as good as yours.

Your second paragraph is complete fantasy. Consumption levels of 'Joe American' is on par with the average person in any industrialized nation- Japan, U.K, France, Sweden, Canada, Brazil and Mexico (not the extreme poor in Brazil and Mexico of course) just people like yourself and the well off. This myth is perpetuated fairly consistently but the truth is plain to see.

Secondly, people carry a balance on their credit cards not because they have to but because they want to. Many people just use credit cards for the convenience and other factors that have nothing to do with not being able to pay. Cheap imports from China? How much money does the average Chinese factory worker make? Do you wear clothes made in Chinese factories? i bet you do. If anything China uses unfair means to produce cheap products.

Nice science fiction scenario though.

I see two major problems here:

1. Growing economies like some Asian and maybe India are building their cities based on oil instead of more environmentally friendly methods. This should have been a global concern but well....:shrug:

2. GUILT. Many wealthy people in countries where the divide between rich and poor is enormous look at their own countries poor who are living in huts and drinking filthy water and fail to put the blame where it belongs, on themselves.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/from_our_own_correspondent/2139401.stm

This post can go on and on but it will not change anything.

http://www.ruralpovertyportal.org/english/regions/americas/bra/index.htm

There is so much you can do Billy:

http://ipsnews.net/interna.asp?idnews=24213

Consumption levels of 'Joe American' is on par with the average person in any industrialized nation- Japan, U.K, France, Sweden, Canada, Brazil and Mexico (not the extreme poor in Brazil and Mexico of course) just people like yourself and the well off.

Do you have a source for this?

Billy T, ...Your second paragraph is complete fantasy. Consumption levels of 'Joe American' is on par with the average person in any industrialized nation- Japan, U.K, France, Sweden, Canada, Brazil and Mexico (not the extreme poor in Brazil and Mexico of course) just people like yourself and the well off. This myth is perpetuated fairly consistently but the truth is plain to see.I think you need to support this POV with some facts. For example, because of the US´s surban sprawl, big heavy cars, and higher incomes (more cars per capita and less invested in public transport per capita), the US consumes a dispropórtionate amount of oil. I forget the numbers but recall that the US uses about twice what any of the countries you named use. I suspect that only for the generation of electricity, the US uses 10 times more per capita than France does as they get almost 90% of their electricity from nuclear power. (Uranium is not inexhaustable but much more so than oil.) - I.e.you are not correct in your unsupported assertion.

Secondly, people carry a balance on their credit cards not because they have to but because they want to. Many people just use credit cards for the convenience and other factors that have nothing to do with not being able to pay.I miss your point here and did not comment on credit cards. but agree that many people, WHO PAY THEIR BILL IN FULL EACH MONTH do use credit cards because they want to. Some people do not pay infull and get deeper in debt because of the interest cost. I doubt we disagree on any of this credit card facts. The people who can not pay off in full do tend to be in an unsustainable life style, which until recently was not exposed for some of them as they refinanced their homes to pay their debts. The extent to which their economic disasters will spread is into the general economy is unknown. Two large funds of Bear-Sterns (I think) were going under because of the "subprime mortgage" problem last week and most experts including Bernachie, think the worst is still to come.
Cheap imports from China? How much money does the average Chinese factory worker make? Do you wear clothes made in Chinese factories? i bet you do. If anything China uses unfair means to produce cheap products.It does not matter how or why the Chinese imports are cheap if you are the buyer in US. When the cheap Asian goods stop being sold in US, the US life style will go down.

China´s long term (some more than 30years) contracts for increasing amouts of raw materials and oil etc. will be paid for by the production of China´s factories and laborers. The internal demand in China, with its rapidly expanding and ever more wealthy middle class will soon exceed that of all Amerticans. China will sell less to the US as its production is needed for these contracts and domestic consumption, even if the dollar does not collapse.

I looked at your last two links (about Brazil) and found them to be accurate. A few days ago, one of the wealthy, large land owners (known by his initials, ACM) in NE Brazil died. He also controlled the radio stations was elected for years to the national congress etc. There is lots of corruption in Brazil still, but it is slowing getting better. One of the most destructive things, holding the masses in poverty was not mentioned. Higher education is free, usually even the room and board on the university campus, but only for the children of the wealthy, who can go to the private schools necessary to prepare them for the entrance exams. Thus, the poor are taxed to support the wealthy child´s education but given no realistic chance to attend the "free" universities.

Maybe you are right. Maybe the US can maintain a trade deficit with China indefinitely.Or maybe things will be righted without all hell breaking lose.

That's nice Billy you chose the highest country for Nuclear power use to compare it to U.S. Nuclear power has it's own issues anyway/

As far as consumption this was debunked in another thread, i will see if i can find it. The only way to gauge consumption is on an individual basis and then factor in income level (middle income compared to poor etc.). Per capita: Latin phrase meaning for each head. Do you see why I put the links there? So what is the answer? Do we consume less or reproduce less? Is there a reproduction competition?

Two large funds of Bear-Sterns (I think) were going under because of the "subprime mortgage" problem last week and most experts including Bernachie, think the worst is still to come.

I don't feel sorry for them.

It does not matter how or why the Chinese imports are cheap if you are the buyer in US. When the cheap Asian goods stop being sold in US, the US life style will go down.


It is interesting that you came to the conclusion that U.S NEEDS Chinese imports. Not based on fact but interesting. Personally i try to avoid stuff made in China, not sure about the average British person though.

Funny enough almost all the white goods I recently bought were not made in China, but they were made in "Asia": Thailand, Vietnam and Korea

....As far as consumption this was debunked in another thread, i will see if i can find it. The only way to gauge consumption is on an individual basis and then factor in income level (middle income compared to poor etc.). ...Ok, I wait for you to find it, or any evidence, that US oil consumption (per capita) is the same as other developed nations - I think that is false.

There are many differnt ways to judge oil consumption but the income adjusted way you are suggesting does not remove the fact that US per capita use is significantly greater than all others - This is due to the "suburban infrastructure" I have spoke of in many old threads and the "gas-hog" cars (getting better on this now) and lack of investment in public transport. Because of this "suburban infrastructure," which will take at least a decade to significantly change, the US will suffer more than any other nation with oil prices above $100/barrel.



...I don't feel sorry for them. {hedge funds with large holding of sub prime mortgages}Nor do I, but as economic losses tend to spread, all holders of dollars will be hurt at least slightly, and that includes you, I assume. No one knows where the current decrease in home values will end. It is not the reason why I have been predicting that the US will be in deep depression within the decade, but certainly can be a contributing factor if the sub-prime losses spread into the general economy.
...It is interesting that you came to the conclusion that U.S NEEDS Chinese imports. Not based on fact but interesting. Personally i try to avoid stuff made in China, not sure about the average British person though.I made no such claim that us NEEDS cheap Chinese imports. In fact, the old items such as shirts, toys and shoes etc. no longer come from China. Labor cost in China are too high now, so these items come from other Asian nations now. China has moved to higher value added items like digital cameras, computers, cell phones, cars etc. This means that their middle class labor force is earning better wages now and growing in numbers by at least 1 million each month. In less than a decade, their purchasing power will exceed that of all Americans. (There are four times more Chinese than Americans, so this is a statement about their total purchasing power, not their standard of living.)

All I said was that when China is not offering cheap goods, the prices paid by Americans for the goods it once imported cheaply from China will increase and that this will contribute, at least some, to the current decline in Joe American's real purchasing power. (I.e. both Joe american's lower real wages and higher prices make for his reduced standard of living.)

Ok, I wait for you to find it, or any evidence, that US oil consumption (per capita) is the same as other developed nations - I think that is false.

You said it not me. You know as well as i do that energy HAS to come from somewhere. The bottom line is when you attain a certain standard of living you will use more resources. This standard does not mean wealthy, even middle class and they consume roughly the same regardless of country. Common sense will prove this.


There are many differnt ways to judge oil consumption but the income adjusted way you are suggesting does not remove the fact that US per capita use is significantly greater than all others - This is due to the "suburban infrastructure" I have spoke of in many old threads and the "gas-hog" cars (getting better on this now) and lack of investment in public transport. Because of this "suburban infrastructure," which will take at least a decade to significantly change, the US will suffer more than any other nation with oil prices above $100/barrel.

Back to this again? The only city in U.S that may fit your view is Los Angeles, every city i know of has well developed mass transportation. In N.Y the buses run on hydrogen and many cabs will or do now. Still i am finding hard to understand why you ignore the fact that two people under similar circumstances one in Sydney one in N.Y would consume at the same level.


Nor do I, but as economic losses tend to spread, all holders of dollars will be hurt at least slightly, and that includes you, I assume. No one know where the current decrease in home vales will end. It is not the reason why I have been predicting that the US will be in deep depression within the decade, but certainly can be a contributiong factor if the sub-prime losses spread into the general economy.
I made no such claim that us NEEDS cheap chinese imports. In fact, the old items such as shirts, toys and shoes etc. no longer come form China. Labor cost in China are too high now, so these items come from other asian nations now. China has moved to higher value added items like digital cameras, computers, cell phones, cars etc. This means that their middle class labor force is earning better wages now and growing in numbers by at least 1 million each month. In less than a decade, their purchasing power will exceed that of all Americans. (There are four times more Chinese than Americans, so this is a statement about their total purchasing power, not their standard of living.)

I honestly think you are being blindingly alarmist in your observation\prediction. Home prices have been fluctuating since the first log cabin was built, i cannot see how they would keep going up without going down at some point :shrug:

There is a big problem with the sheer volume of immigrants the U.S needs to absorb but they just want what you already have. Cant blame them for that but this should be considered when discussing subjects susch as this. On a global scale the U.S should be given some kind of favored nation status for accepting the worlds immigrants. this is my observation.


All I said was that when China is not offering cheap goods, the prices pisd by Americans for the gods it once imported cheaply from China will increase. and that this will contribute, at least some, to the current decline in Joe Amerrican's real purchasing power. (I.e. both Joe american's lower real wages and higher prices make for his reduced standard of living.)

I am certain you use more resources than i do and i do not need to buy cheap imports. The reason is that even if i pay double for a product i know it would last 2 or 3 times longer. Your outlook on purchasing power is pure assumption but you are coming from the ultimate pessimist perspective, that should be considered. Dont worry so much.