"Who would prevent the one-party state of China from acting on its pledge to gather democratic Taiwan into its fold?" (http://www.newamericancentury.org/global-032303.htm)

Why is this a bad thing?

America would because Taiwan is it's ally and friend. I would think that China would want to try and keep their hands off of Taiwan for a long time because it isn't really that important to her. China has everything it needs, why incorporate another problem with America with which it is trying to develop good trade relations with?I believe that in time, perhaps 20 years , Taiwan could see China as a democratic country and want to allign itself with her instead of America. Stranger things have happened haven't they?

LMFAO! You are sooo ignorant omg! Please stop.

Let me explain to you why.

. I would think mthat China would want to try and keep their hands off of Taiwan for a long time because it isn't really that important to her.

More like Taiwan will depend on China for her own economic well being. Why? Simple China is already becoming a large source for Taiwanese FDI, and Taiwans largest industry being semi-conductors are increasingly going to the hyper-industrialized Chinese. Taiwan is more of a geo-political, and historical claim China has on her then anything else.

China has everything it needs, why incorporate another problem with America with which it is trying to develop good trade relations with?

China already has great relations with the US $103 billion SURPLUS with the US so the US depends largely on China for many consumer goods. Already the economic sacrifice that the US and China will pay are not worth fighting over Taiwan.

believe that in time, perhaps 20 years , Taiwan could see China as a democratic country

Why Democractic China? DO you even realize what that implies do you believe CHina would be successful like she is now with a burdeonsome democracy. Get over it man. :rolleyes:


Stranger things have happened haven't they?

Sure that post!

Cosmic,

Are you out of your mind?
That is about as likely as the Berlin wall falling.:rolleyes:

Love the through explanation... stupid ppl's. :rolleyes:

The bad thing about Taiwan in Chinese hands is bad from the view of nationalist taiwanese people naturally and then you have the usa government who likes to control the world trade and don't really like other really big "trusts" to emerge.....

Hypothetically:

What if china offered the american government to "solve" the north korean problem for them , invade it and hand it over to the south koreans?

Would the usa government allow them to take Taiwan as a reward?

Would YOU think that this is a nice killing two birds with one stone solution???

Practically:

China /America and Taiwan have all too much economic stakes/ties to make a war likely (that is one thing that I feel is actually good about bilateral global trading), but the chinese are patient, they know that water will erode the rock slowly, if the knife doesn't cut it....

The chinese first will further economically expand until they can afford the same advanced millitary technology as the usa, maybe they will even colonize the moon first before they want to engage in a potential devastating war here on earth...

I was also thinking about that possible solution to the Taiwanese/NK problem. But I think your theory falls apart on this:

invade it and hand it over to the south koreans?

China would never allow the NK to be democratized if she can stop it. I think that China could invade keep NK around just with new more progressive leadership. The expansion of a democratic SK to the Yalu is not something China needs now with her growing economic and military prowless.

China will eventually begin to dominate Taiwans economy. How can Taiwan ignore 1.2 billion consumers, a great country for investment for much longer? I mean already Taiwanese are flooding China with goods, and investment. So the question becomes will Taiwan be dependant on China? I think yes, and if so then China has massive leverage against her and eventually she would incorporate Taiwan into the "fold". :eek:

While Taiwan is a major investor throughout Southeast Asia, China has become the largest destination for investment and has overtaken the US to become Taiwan's largest export market... Growing economic ties with China are a dominant long-term factor. Exports to China - mainly parts and equipment for the assembly of goods for export to developed countries - drove Taiwan's economic recovery in 2002

Exports:
$130 billion f.o.b.

Exports - partners:
US 22.5%, Hong Kong 22.0%, Japan 10.4%, Germany 3.6%
note:: Taiwan's exports to China include Taiwan government estimates of the proportion of exports that travel via Hong Kong (2002)

So about $28.6 billion worth of goods goes into China through HK and eventually into China. So yes China is essential for the future of Taiwanese economic growth.



source (http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/tw.html#Econ)

I always defer to my Chinese friends when it comes to these sorts of questions. So for what it’s worth this is what they had to say: 1) China isn’t so concerned with Taiwan at the moment – and actually it’s good to have someone to point the finger at. Kind of keeps peoples minds off from some of the injustices going on at home (think America and Iraq). 2) China could right now squish Taiwan economically. But there is no reason to do that until A) China is powerful and also B) the central government already has enough problems keeping the southern Chinese in line. They’d never go for squishing Taiwan. To much money at stake (some areas under Beijing’s control are not under as much control as would appear - S. China being a prime example). 3) More political instability. 4) and lastly, my friends firmly believe that China will be democratic. Democracy is the key to money and money is the key to power. And power adds to control over ones destiny. Most Chinese want freedom and democracy in China and quite frankly they are willing to wait for it – Asians are renowned for their patients. And I agree with him – although I used to think a large population like China’s would suffer under a democracy, now I do think they will do a good job with democracy. (incidentaly, my one friend used to seriously say a prayer to Moa before every meal – now he just laughs at such stupidity! :)

Go China!

Hey Taiwan is only one road block that eventually leads to CHinese Manifest destiny in Asia. China will eventually have nominal comtrol over:

Taiwan (2005-2015)
NK (Present- unknown)
Burma (2007-onward)
Vietnam (2015-onward)
Russian Far east (2015-onward)
Central Asia states (2015-onward)

Now obviously China won't actually claim all of these territories as her own, but surely it will have nomimal control of these regions. China is too huge to ignore.

Originally posted by nico
Hey Taiwan is only one road block that eventually leads to CHinese Manifest destiny in Asia. China will eventually have nominal comtrol over:

Taiwan (2005-2015)
NK (Present- unknown)
Burma (2007-onward)
Vietnam (2015-onward)
Russian Far east (2015-onward)
Central Asia states (2015-onward)

Now obviously China won't actually claim all of these territories as her own, but surely it will have nomimal control of these regions. China is too huge to ignore.

I don't know about the others, but as for the Russian Far East, I could see that going nuclear in a hurry. The Russians don't like or trust the Chinese, they know the Chinese have aspirations in Siberia, and don't have a prayer of stopping their military short of WMD.

Central Asian nations, I'm sure still have some nukes from the old USSR and does China really want a bunch of Muslim fundalmentalists to deal with? Granted the Chicoms aren't exactly recalcitrant about using serious force to quash an uprising. Then you think of Afghanistan and the Russians there. ???

but as for the Russian Far East, I could see that going nuclear in a hurry. The Russians don't like or trust the Chinese, they know the Chinese have aspirations in Siberia, and don't have a prayer of stopping their military short of WMD.


I realize this, that is why it's nominal. The Chinese are already flooding E.Russia with Han Chinese and with the Russian population quickly declining it only seems natural that the Chinese should get back the land she once owned. But as you mentioned that won't happen. So I see a sphere of influence in the regions (all pretty much will be spheres).

Central Asian nations, I'm sure still have some nukes from the old USSR and does China really want a bunch of Muslim fundalmentalists to deal with?

No truth no Central Asian states have nukes they gave it up. China's muslim problem is getting more desperate it seems as everyday goes by. Already in both Tibet and Xinjiang Han Chinese outnumber the natives so. It's like the native issue in the US... a sympathic ear.

Then you think of Afghanistan and the Russians there. ???

No, see that's the misconception. China will not invade any of these states with the possible exception of Taiwan and NK.