Does chance acually exist. Some might say the outcome of a roll of a die is completley chance. But if you know evey variable that will determine the outcome of that die, wouldnt you be able to determine the outcome. And if this is true is it true for everything in the universe.

Does chance acually exist. Some might say the outcome of a roll of a die is completley chance. But if you know evey variable that will determine the outcome of that die, wouldnt you be able to determine the outcome.
For a die, yes.
And if this is true is it true for everything in the universe.
Some events are unpredictable viz., the beta decay (of a specific neutron into proton) of a specific atom of a radioactive element is unpredictable till it occurs.

Some events are unpredictable viz., the beta decay (of a specific neutron into proton) of a specific atom of a radioactive element is unpredictable till it occurs.

One could argue that you simply don't know enough about beat decay and its causes, to predict it, before it happens.

One could argue that you simply don't know enough about beat decay and its causes, to predict it, before it happens.

Not only "Don't know enough" but by current theory it is impossible to know enough due to "Uncertainity".

The best we can do is describe probabilities.

So we label somthing as chance when it too complex to understand. And if we ever completley understand all physics and how the brain works, it may be possible to predict the future. Or simulate the beggining of the universe and see how life on earth developed.

No.. As MacM said, some things cannot be known, no matter how well you understand something..

Does chance acually exist. Some might say the outcome of a roll of a die is completley chance. But if you know evey variable that will determine the outcome of that die, wouldnt you be able to determine the outcome. And if this is true is it true for everything in the universe.
Instead of asling some question that assumes the impossibility consider the measurement of a pair of dice leaving the shooters hand umbling in the space frome hand to the crap table's walls and table top. How would you possibily measure the parameters anywhere along the trajectories of the dice and make a prediction of the final result?

What if just you made that perfect analysis of all the parameters and the final result was predicable and some smoker blows a lung full of smoke that slightly affects the parameters you so carefully measured, and knew even to the nth degree? Your predicted results proves inncaurate. How do you calculate the motion of all the sars in the sky some estimates put as more numerous than all the grains of sand on all the beaches of the planet earth?

What you see is what you get.

Why would you state that the alternative of failing to know all the parameters and hence failing in prediciton is chance? Why are you concerned with the answer to such a useless univiversal question in he first place?

What are the odds that 1. the sun will rise tomorrow or 2 the sun will not rise tomorrow? Answer: the odds are 50/50. D you concern yourse;f withe sheer 'coin flip' heads/tails uncertainty of the sun rising?

Geistkiesel
Geistkiesel

geistkiesel, the person who blew the smoke would be part of the equation, eveything would be part of the equation. All the people talking sending sound waves that hit the die would be a part of the equation. What I am saying if we knew all the laws of physics we could determine eveything. I believe if we know all the laws of physics and how the brain works. We could simulate the big bang and end up exactly where we are right now. You may think that you have a choice between eating the hamburger or the hotdog, but really you dont your going to base your decision on past events. what im trying to say that eveything that happens in the universe is mathematicaly predictable there is not option A or option B. Our mind gives us the illusion that we had the choice but we really dont.

Predicting the result would require you to know the exact parameters that every smallest piece of matter and energy and point of space, that can possibly effect the throw. That would mean the area around the dice, with the radius of r=ct, where t is the duration of the throw and c is the speed of light.
Now due to uncertainity, you cannot possibly know all the required information. And even if there wasn't that, then you couldn't possibly have access to the information from the location of the dice. You could only know it after it had already effected the dice.
So my view is, that nothing is predictable, even if it is determined.

I almost agree with fo3, i believe that everything is predictible and that everything is deterministic, but it is not predictible now and will not be in my lifetime and hence it is not of any greater importance to me.

The dice should however be a rather "trivial" object to predict, unfortunatly it is under human influence (when throwing it) and therefore it is no longer "trivial".

I guess im trying to say that everything that happens at Time A is a result of Time B and everything that happened at Time B is a result of Time C. So what ever created the universe was at time 0 and everthing that happened after that was based on what happened in the past. If there was a way to know how everything interacted with everything else I believe that if we simulated the creation of the universe 1000 times(assuming we know what created the universe) we would end up with the same result everytime. I know it that we will probally never have this ultamate knowledge but my main point is that every decision that is made could have only gone one way. The die rolled only has one possible out come it doesnt have a choice between landing on a six or a two. This is the same for the human species we really dont have a choice between eating the hamburger or eating the hotdog. we have the illusion of having the choice because we are a more complex system, but when you break it down man and the die are just matter in the unvierse interacting with each other.

Possibly.. But I think that we don't know enough about nature right now, to even guess whether it is so, or if there still is a chance..
But even if the universe is deterministic, it is certainly not predictable.. At least thats the way I see it..

I think that the parameters which originate the future movement of an object eg. a billiard ball are impossible to know. Lets take two balls and let them collide. The precise point of the collision is unspecifiable: imagine you have the power to enlarge this point (point situated on an absolutely compact ball) ad infinitum you will never be able to stop the process of enlargement (process is endless) therefore you will never be able to specify the point (in it's infinite smallnes) to make an exact prediction of future movement. Exact predictions go beyond infinity...therefore are impossible in their nature.

Actually you couldn't measure with greater preciseness, than the plancks lenght.

Quantum events are still random. Some theorize that they for any quantum probability event two universes are created. Whether this is true or not is to be questioned, but there are events that not only do we not KNOW enough to predict, but CANNOT KNOW enough to predict the outcome. This fact alone means that the "destiny" of the Universe was not set from its creation, but that perhaps the destinies of all universes within the multiverse were set.

-AntonK

This could be the possible.. But I'm still in favor with the determined universe. Not predictable.. I think that if something cannot be known, then this doesn't mean that there is no causality below that level.

Whether or not you believe in a multiverse is a matter of opinion more than empirical evidence right now. But the universe is not deterministic. Quantum events CANNOT be known -- this isn't that we don't know, its that they cANNOT be known. You may come back with some argument about us not having a good knowledge of quantum physics, but if you want to throw out all of quantum physics you'll have more problems on your hand.

From a purely philosophical point of view, why would you want a deterministic universe? That precludes any freewill.

-AntonK

The universe could de deterministic and we still could have free will. In the multiverse model the universe splits with the every choice we have eg. if you come to a coffee bar and you think "shell I have a coffee or a thee" then the universe splits in two and in one universe you have the thee and in the other one you have the coffee. (Everett - Wheeler theory). So all happens in the deterministic universe which is then like a sort of a cubist-painting-like structure. We, as individuals, live only a tiny part of our "whole" (cubist) self and due to this "incompleteness" (lack of total knowledge) we have free will (we have the choice of "perspective" in a partial disembodiment of this whole structure).

Does a rock have free will, no. What makes a rock better than a human. A rock and a human are made out of matter, the human is more complex but we still follow the same rules as the rock does. Our mind just gives us the illusion that we have free will. Procop you say the In the multiverse model the universe splites with every choice we have, but that choice was based upon something that happened in the past. To change the outcome of the choice you would have to change the past. That brings up the topic of time travel and alternate universes

AntonK,
You are talking about prediction, not determinism.. I said that I think the universe is deterministic, but not predictable. Even if some information can't ever possibly be known, because of some physics laws, doesn't mean that that information doesn't follow the causality.

The universe could de deterministic and we still could have free will. In the multiverse model the universe splits with the every choice we have eg. if you come to a coffee bar and you think "shell I have a coffee or a thee" then the universe splits in two and in one universe you have the thee and in the other one you have the coffee. (Everett - Wheeler theory). So all happens in the deterministic universe which is then like a sort of a cubist-painting-like structure. We, as individuals, live only a tiny part of our "whole" (cubist) self and due to this "incompleteness" (lack of total knowledge) we have free will (we have the choice of "perspective" in a partial disembodiment of this whole structure).

In this case, the particular universe you are in (which is constantly changing really), is not deterministic because quantum properties prevent you from ever knowing (determining) the outcome of a quantum event. In this case we can say that the MULTIVERSE is deterministic because for each quantum event we can deterministicly say that there will be 2 universes created ( is it really created then? who knows).

If you role a 6 dot dice then the universe divides into six copies: all six possiblilities happen. It is deterministic in the sence that there is no other "choice" then all six to happen.

If your thinking that way the die could land on the table off the table in the center of the table or on the moon there would be an infinite amout of possiblilites meaning that and infinate amount of universes are bieng created each second. That seems a bit illogical to me.

If we assumed that even at the quantum level things follow causality, even if we can't predict, or even know any of it, then this way there should be no need for the dividing of realities.
But as much as I know about quantum physics, I think it might suggest that I'm wrong.. Mainly because the intelligent observer can effect the reality only by being there and observing.. One could ofcourse argue that the intelligent observer being there is also determined, but I have no idea how to prove or disprove this..
Of course modern physics is often illogical, but tests show it to be correct.

If you role a 6 dot dice then the universe divides into six copies: all six possiblilities happen. It is deterministic in the sence that there is no other "choice" then all six to happen.Not at all. Very few things (perhaps nothing) that we deal with in our every-day lives are affected by quantum indeterminacy. Objects like dice are far too massive for quantum uncertainty to play any role. The result of a dice roll will be determined by ordinary Newtonian things like how the dice was tossed, how it tumbles as it falls through the air, the characteristics of the surface that it lands on, etc. The quantum effects are far too slight to change the outcome.

Not at all. Very few things (perhaps nothing) that we deal with in our every-day lives are affected by quantum indeterminacy. Objects like dice are far too massive for quantum uncertainty to play any role. The result of a dice roll will be determined by ordinary Newtonian things like how the dice was tossed, how it tumbles as it falls through the air, the characteristics of the surface that it lands on, etc. The quantum effects are far too slight to change the outcome.

Ever heard of the Butterfly effect?

This thread is degenerating into chaos, at least in theory.

This thread is degenerating into chaos, at least in theory.

Generally "chaos" is the name we use to describe an order which we do not understrand.

Not at all. Very few things (perhaps nothing) that we deal with in our every-day lives are affected by quantum indeterminacy. Objects like dice are far too massive for quantum uncertainty to play any role. The result of a dice roll will be determined by ordinary Newtonian things like how the dice was tossed, how it tumbles as it falls through the air, the characteristics of the surface that it lands on, etc. The quantum effects are far too slight to change the outcome.


But isn't such randomness you describe then corrected "channelled" into some choice spectrum (we have things which are pretty definite around us) so that this randomnes is contained to Quantum

But isn't such randomness you describe then corrected "channelled" into some choice spectrum (we have things which are pretty definite around us) so that this randomnes is contained to QuantumI don't understand what you're saying here.

Not at all. Very few things (perhaps nothing) that we deal with in our every-day lives are affected by quantum indeterminacy. Objects like dice are far too massive for quantum uncertainty to play any role. The result of a dice roll will be determined by ordinary Newtonian things like how the dice was tossed, how it tumbles as it falls through the air, the characteristics of the surface that it lands on, etc. The quantum effects are far too slight to change the outcome.

The quantum effects are so small, that they don't play any significant role. Yes, perhaps the side the dice will land on can be predicted by ordinary Newtonian things. But the exact position the dice will land can't be predicted because of quantum indeterminacy. This still means, that in every point of space, in every moment of time, the universe theoretically should split to an endless number of different realities.

Generally "chaos" is the name we use to describe an order which we do not understrand.No, a "chaotic" system is one in which very small differences in starting conditions can cause large changes in results. It doesn't have anything to do with how well we understand the processes at work. Indeed, there are some mathematical algorithms that are very chaotic in the results that they give, even though they are perfectly understood (because they are algorithms that were designed by people).

I don't understand what you're saying here.

I meant eg. that the chance happenings can be contained in a (sort of) "tunnel of necessity" which "corrects" the haphazardness: eg a six points dice has much more "small sides and tiny flat corners" than the six big number bearing sides: it can be seen (in a way) a missformed ball (ball wich fallings possibilities were reduced from milliard to six..) Thererefore it is posibble that quantum randomness you describe is contained eg by the form or forces at that level)

The quantum effects are so small, that they don't play any significant role. Yes, perhaps the side the dice will land on can be predicted by ordinary Newtonian things. But the exact position the dice will land can't be predicted because of quantum indeterminacy. This still means, that in every point of space, in every moment of time, the universe theoretically should split to an endless number of different realities.Perhaps you couldn’t determine the final resting place of the dice to within a trillionth of a centimeter due to quantum uncertainty, but I would contend that the over-all result of the role (ie, which numbered side faces up when the dice stops) would be totally Newtonian.

Probably yes. Except in some very rare cases, where the newtonian calculations were not enough to know the outcome. But that is not the point. The exact position would still be unknown. Let us have an imaginary dice with a trillion sides for every centimeter. Would newtonian physics be enough to calculate the side the dice lands on? Probably not. There will be a certain degree of unknowability. And for every possible outcome that is in that unknown area, there should be a different reality created.
That is if we assume that the at the quantum level, things are not only unpredictable and unknowable, but undeterministic aswell..

Let us have an imaginary dice with a trillion sides for every centimeter. .

fo3 we actually have such dice, but we prefer to call it "ball" :)

Im not to familar with quantum indeterminacy but does it play a significant role when deciding to eat the hamburger or hotdog? In other words does it acually allow intelligent life to make true decisions.

can "chance " be proven to exist using a scientific method? Or is "chance" like some sort of religion that requires only faith and not proof to it's validity as a concept?

fo3 we actually have such dice, but we prefer to call it "ball" :)

I know, but I preferred to use the word dice :P

Im not to familar with quantum indeterminacy but does it play a significant role when deciding to eat the hamburger or hotdog? In other words does it acually allow intelligent life to make true decisions.

Probably not.. But we have no way of knowing it..
Someone already mentioned the butterfly effect. Maybe something that happened yesterday didn't effect your decision of choosing between a hamburger and a hotdog, but after 10 years, it might have snowballed into changing your entire life..

I suggest that it is reasonably probable that:

In order to predict the outcome of a well spun set of dice, you need to know the initial conditions to such precision that quantum uncertainty comes into play.