HINDUSTAN TIMES

Can India save the world?

Kishore Mahbubani
March 21, 2008
First Published: 23:28 IST(21/3/2008)
Last Updated: 23:34 IST(21/3/2008)

Humanity is embarking on a bizarre journey into the future. Subconsciously, we all believe (or would like to believe) that we live in a rational, well-ordered universe. The reality is closer to the opposite. If this sounds unbelievable, consider the following analogy. Imagine 660 passengers boarding a ship that is sailing into unchartered waters. After boarding, all 660 retreat into their cabins. No captain or crew is taking care of the ship as a whole.

Sadly, this is a literal, not metaphorical description of how spaceship Earth is sailing into the future. Globalisation has shrunk the world. All 6.6 billion inhabitants now live in a single interdependent universe. From financial crises to health epidemics, from borderless terrorism to global warming, we are moving into a world where more global governance (not global government) is needed to manage the growing interdependence. Instead, precisely when more is needed, humanity is either shrinking or weakening global governance. This essay will explain why. It will also argue that perhaps only one country can solve this crisis — India.

Global governance is shrinking because the West, which spun a rich web of multilateral institutions and norms after World War II, is losing faith in multilateralism. The Western powers were happy to be custodians of the main rules and processes of the global order because they were convinced that a more rules-bound universe, accompanied by greater trade liberalisation, would benefit the Western economies the most since they had the world’s most competitive economies. This conviction of economic superiority led the West to bring down trade barriers. They had no doubt that the West would win on an open economic playing field.

John F Kennedy illustrated this confidence when he said in 1962, “A more liberal trade policy will in general benefit our most efficient and expanding industries.” The boundless optimism of Kennedy has been replaced by the boundless pessimism of Lou Dobbs, who is convinced that American workers cannot compete with Chinese or Indian workers. Sadly, Lou Dobbs is not an isolated phenomenon. Both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have joined the race to the bottom by declaring that each is more protectionist than the other. This reflects the new psyche of the American population. Europe is not much better.

If both America and Europe lose confidence in their ability to compete, how can they remain custodians of the rules that ensure fairness and equity? To be fair, humanity should thank both first for creating the 1945 rules-based order at the end of World War II. To understand how visionary the Western founding fathers of this order were, just contrast what they did after World War II with what was done after World War I. After World War I, the world order forced Germany and Japan to go to war as they tried to expand their political and economic space. After World War II, both Germany and Japan significantly expanded their political and economic space without going to war.

More (http://www.hindustantimes.com/StoryPage/StoryPage.aspx?id=b256bfa5-2b67-4cd0-8113-224240a01d87&MatchID1=4664&TeamID1=5&TeamID2=2&MatchType1=1&SeriesID1=1173&PrimaryID=4664&Headline=Can+India+save+the+world%3f)

India is having many problems internally now so it would be wiser to get itself on course first.:)

One has to deal with the external world anyway...so why not manage your policies for the long term?

That was an excellent summary of the present state of geopolitics. The premise of the title was hardly addressed, and may have been slightly overstated (that India is poised to save the world). The author didn't hardly go into that at all, but maybe we can here.

India is the world's largest democracy, and there is no doubt that the middle and upper classes are booming. But considerable domestic challenges remain in terms of equal opportunities vs. poverty, that give me pause about whether India will lead the way. It seems to me that whether India will become a light unto the nations will depend on what solutions are found for the improvement of life not only for the presently upwardly-mobile, but also for the other Indians, who seem a neglected, invisible majority when we celebrate the stunning progress of India. What solutions India finds and implements that will reverse the desperate trend among Indian farmers, and what solutions India implements toward reducing poverty and hopelessness in general will tell. If economic divides in India continue to widen, in a reprise of the social divides of colonialism, then the same tensions and breakdowns that plague the wider world today will still plague India. If that's the case, it's doubtful India will be a catalyst for saving the world. If, on the other hand... is there reason for hope? I'd like to hear some reason for hope from Indians.

No, it cannot.

We have enough problems of our own to be wearing a technicolored dhoti and taking over the world. Hopefully, we can lead by example.

Sam: "Hopefully, we can lead by example."

Isn't that the only way forward?

Seems we have a largely parallel thread (http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?t=73729) running. Over there, I discovered (through one of Sam's posts) the Indian system of 5-Year Plans (http://planningcommission.nic.in/plans/planrel/plansf.htm) and that seems to offer a potential for continuity of vision and policy that other nations lack (I'm thinking of US policy drift). At least on paper, India appears to have a more progressive and inclusive vision and agenda than the USA.

The boundless optimism of Kennedy has been replaced by the boundless pessimism of Lou Dobbs, who is convinced that American workers cannot compete with Chinese or Indian workers. Sadly, Lou Dobbs is not an isolated phenomenon.


The problem for skilled Americans is not that Americans can not compete. The problem is that skilled Americans can not compete at these exchange rates.

On the unskilled labor side, Americans driving cars, watching TV at night, and living in 1500 square foot houses with running water can not compete with bicycle riding people, who stand around the rubbish fire and sing together at night, live in 70 square foot shanties without electricity or plumbing, who have to defecate by the side of the road near their shanty.

It costs a lot more money to maintain a poor American family than it does to maintain a poor Indian family.

:thumbsup: Very well said :thumbsup:

Humanity is embarking on a bizarre journey into the future.
More so for this thread than for humanity.

India is able to save the world only if it offers it online data storage capacity.

India is able to save the world only if it offers it online data storage capacity.

Already India is the back office of the world or will be in a few years...

Is this thread a joke?

I think so..

The problem for skilled Americans is not that Americans can not compete. The problem is that skilled Americans can not compete at these exchange rates.

On the unskilled labor side, Americans driving cars, watching TV at night, and living in 1500 square foot houses with running water can not compete with bicycle riding people, who stand around the rubbish fire and sing together at night, live in 70 square foot shanties without electricity or plumbing, who have to defecate by the side of the road near their shanty.

It costs a lot more money to maintain a poor American family than it does to maintain a poor Indian family.

In U.S and AFAIK Europe thing are much more fair. We have social programs instead of isolating and beating down the poor and merely using them in servitude. Its easy to make money off human cattle. But this fairness is evident by the number of poor coming here from that particular region. I dont agree with the indoctrination i see in other countries of blaming the boogie man while giving a free pass to the real victimizers. If your cool with that then i dont want any part of it.

In U.S and AFAIK Europe thing are much more fair. We have social programs instead of isolating and beating down the poor and merely using them in servitude. Its easy to make money off human cattle. But this fairness is evident by the number of poor coming here from that particular region. I dont agree with the indoctrination i see in other countries of blaming the boogie man while giving a free pass to the real victimizers. If your cool with that then i dont want any part of it.

I don't think the free traders and U.S. politicians understand yet that the American poor and lower middle class can not compete at any exchange rate with people who live without electricity, plumbing and health-care. The fact that we don't yet have 20% unemployment in the U.S. just means that many businesses have been have been slow to take advantage of third world "human cattle". Also the Chinese/Japanese/Saudi lending to the USA has masked the problem.

A domestic service based economy will not be able to maintain wage levels for long.

As the Euro replaces the Dollar as the overinflated global currency the sort of problems that the USA has been having will increasingly show up in Europe. The only advantage that Europe has is that they are not as blinded by free trade ideology. Competition is good, but you can't compete with poverty.

The only good thing about destroying the American middle class is that destroying the American middle class might reduce global pollution.

I don't think the free traders and U.S. politicians understand yet that the American poor and lower middle class can not compete at any exchange rate with people willing to live without electricity, plumbing and health-care. The fact that we don't yet have 20% unemployment in the U.S. just means that many businesses have been have been slow to take advantage of third world "human cattle". Also the Chinese/Japanese/Saudi lending to the USA has masked the problem.

The only good thing about destroying the American middle class is that destroying the American middle class might reduce global pollution.

oh ok. They are willing to live without electricity, plumbing and health care to support an aristocracy and the millionaires. How convenient, of course whatever you are basing this on is anyones guess. China and India's pollution dont count either huh? Boy, its amazing how well things work out when you only see what you want to.

Changed "willing to live without" to "who live without". "Willing to" was wrong.

A very poor person in India or China makes a lot less pollution than a lower middle class American does.

Is this thread a joke?

Pretty much, yes. That article wandered around like a fat girl in a donut shop, but in the end tried to gloss over India's shameful human rights record by deflecting criticism toward China. India is selectively multi-lateral, at best. Honestly, that was one of the more pointless editorials I've read in quite some time.

Changed "willing to live without" to "who live without". "Willing to" was wrong.

A very poor person in India or China makes a lot less pollution than a lower middle class American does.

yes but the lower middle class people in india and china make the same pollution ans a lower middle class in U.S and a homeless person (very poor) in America makes the same as a very poor person in india and china.:)

yes but the lower middle class people in india and china make the same pollution ans a lower middle class in U.S and a homeless person (very poor) in America makes the same as a very poor person in india and china.:)

Being lower middle class in India does not mean the same thing as being lower middle class in the USA. In India you can afford to have servants before you can afford a car. In the USA you can afford a car before you can afford servants.

What middle class means is subjective. A low level customer service rep job in the USA answering phone calls about problems with your DSL service would be a lower middle class or upper working poor job. That employee would be able to afford a car.
Ship that job to India ( as my DSL provider has done) and the job becomes a middle middle class job in India. That employee in India would probably own a motor scooter. They would probably live in a household with other people, ( maybe in their father in laws house). The household would very likely have a few scooters and a servant, but no car. Daily power outages would be likely.

In the future a middle class person in India may pollute as much as middle class person in America does, but at this time a middle class person in India has less possessions and uses less energy than a lower middle class borderline working poor American person does.

A lower middle class borderline working poor person in India probably does not have electricity or plumbing. If they do have electricity, they only have it for a few hours a day. They might have a scooter, and if they don't have a scooter they have a bicycle. The poorer poor in India can not afford a bicycle.

I am sorry Nirakar but i dont agree with anyone living in servitude. I would cut my ********* off before i had even one servant.

Even if the servant needed the job in order to feed their family?
Do you ever go to restaurants? Aren't the cook and waitress your servant for a little while?

oh, i thought you meant this servitude.

http://www.webcom.com/hrin/magazine/april96/childwrk.html

India has laws against child labor but they are enforced about as well as the USA enforces it's laws against employing illegal immigrants.

By servant, I mean somebody you hire full time to do domestic work for your family. If you don't have a washing machine because you can't afford a washing machine, then having a poorer person who you can pay to wash your clothes comes in handy. It is sad that people are so poor that they have to work for less than a washing machine costs, but that is the way it is.

Illegal immigrants are paid and live with dignity, thats why they come here.

If thats the way it is then i want no part of it. i would rather be poor and with them.

These days, the way civilization works is:

1. People walk barefoot, build houses using bamboo or sticks and mud, grow basic food by hand or using animals etc - the barefoot civilization

2. Bicycle civilization: Both China and India in 60s 70s....for USA 30s 40s perhaps earlier.Life was hard but good, not much medical care though

3. Motorcycle civilization: this is a small time frame as the groups move from Bicycle to 4-wheels. Tractors are introduced for agriculture. A key time frame for rapid industrialization. For China it was early to mid 80s. During this time, the Chinese has engineers providing directions and hence you would not see people riding on the top of trains and buses. China exchanges know-how among each other from North to South. India did not.

4. The Car civilization: Personal transportation as the driver for growth. Lots of industries including polluting ones (USA - 60s, 70s, 80s), China 80s, India 90s, 00s. The society becomes more complex, supply chain logistics issues, infrastructure issues and every kind of issues that a cooperative group like China solved better than a North-South animosity in India.

5. Information Age: No need to go to work at some building...do your stuff locally so consume less. No need to buy TV dinners or massive amount of clothes and shoes. No need to have a square mile Mall. No need to have a car for each family member. Less use of Oil, Plastics and other 500 products...We are not there yet because the horse and buggy establishment is fighting back. Perhaps Europe will lead the way here.

6. Death of a civilization: Outsource everything and hence the social foundation crumbles. To support the life style, go fight wars to take loot home, except there would not be much left to loot. Smart ones move to greener pastures...The locals survive similar to the great civilizations of yesterday Greece, Italy and Agentina...except with larger populations and gangs roving the streets....Italy has been taken over by gangs called Mafia that controls the country today.

Just some ramblings....:)

It's a good ramble. Defining levels of society by how they get to work, works for me.

India and China moving into the car phase is sending commodity prices spiraling upwards. Stopping global warming by reducing carbon output is just not going to happen.

I am sorry Nirakar but i dont agree with anyone living in servitude. I would cut my ********* off before i had even one servant.

The word "servant" has been changed in U.S. as "dometic help" or Au Pair or "companion". So when you grow old and hire someone to take care of you, please do not cut off your Ts. :D

One of my Aunt is a certified nurse who works as a Companion (that is what is called rather than Nurse) for very old and fragile people at their home.

It's a good ramble. Defining levels of society by how they get to work, works for me.

India and China moving into the car phase is sending commodity prices spiraling upwards. Stopping global warming by reducing carbon output is just not going to happen.

It can help, if India and China can quickly move from Car phase to the Information Age. Here India can do much better than China because China is afraid of Information for the masses. But to get there, India needs to build the right infrastructure and new subdivisions conducive for the Information Age. Already they are building these in Mumbai and Pune corridor. There is no reason to copy the same mistakes of the west.

You know, someone should take my ramble and expand to an essay...since we have most of the historical data...that would be very interesting to see how a civilization evolves perhaps even in a distant planet....and where do we go from here.....

Your ramble could be the start of a good essay. I think outsourcing creates the next great depression but I think the world bounces out of that after 5 years and resumes the information age. No end to civilization.

But what age comes after the information age if it is not the end of civilization? Do we insert electrodes into our brains so that we can more easily interface with our computers and robots?

Sam or somebody, please correct my statements on India if I am wrong. I have only spent a few months in India since the 1980s. I was in India for a year in the 1980s but I was never really integrated into the culture. India made an impression on me but I don't claim to really know India.

Pune is the only Indian city that I really know. Pune was transitioning from bicycle to scooter during the 1980s. Last year when I went to Pune the city had changed so much and is starting to transition from motor scooters to cars. Riding a bicycle in Pune now would be stressful.

I wouldnt laugh too hard about the servitude comment.

I just got an eamil that states:

An alliance of steel and other manufacturers and the United Steelworkers said Tuesday that Pennsylvania lost 78,200 manufacturing jobs to China from 2001 to 2006, and called on the U.S. presidential candidates to commit to enforcing existing trade laws concerning the burgeoning economic power.

The Alliance for American Manufacturing also said that 1.8 million jobs were lost across the United States.

http://www.bizjournals.com/pittsburgh/stories/2008/03/24/daily17.html?f=et74&ana=e_du

But blaming China is not the solution. The civilization must learn and move on...if we are smart, we all should grow without exploiting the other.

As to what comes after the Information age, even Alvin Toffler did not have anything to say while he predicted the Information Age.

For near term, I like a vision where, you can live anywhere in the world with a basic Maslow's needs and enjoy access to all the audio-visual entertainment one can afford the time.

In far future, we may have pure virual reality netwroked such that you can live in Madagascar and work in New York everyday interacting with real people in the virtual world. You still need people to build basic infrastruture...

if we are smart, we all should grow without exploiting the other.


And exactly how do you see that happening?

Your ramble could be the start of a good essay. I think outsourcing creates the next great depression but I think the world bounces out of that after 5 years and resumes the information age. No end to civilization.


Long ago, I was a Plant Engineer where we had two massive Chlorine Compressors. The operators were told to make sure the flow rate does not fall below a critical level, otherwise, the compressor will surge and it would damage the Compressor. This was before the fancy surge control system I developed. Now, things went well for a year and then there were some process problems. Sure enough someone screwed up and then this machine went to suge and got $300,000 worth damage not to mention slowdown in production for a week.

We are facing similar instability problems...hopefully it will not last long....

And exactly how do you see that happening?


Through tacit knowledge transfer....

Tata is buying Land Rover and Jaguar from Ford.

My friend likes her Tata Indigo better than American cars she has owned.

Tata intends to sell a new car the Tata Nano for US $2,500 per car.

Watch out Japan, Tata might start taking some global market share in auto's soon.

Tata is a good company. Unfortunately, Ratan still lives in the age of chivalry and does business honestly. So of course, he's treated like crap. Mittal is smarter and is the man to watch out for.

On India and the world economy:

New Delhi, Mar 26 Aiming to treble bilateral trade to $10 billion mark by 2010, India and Brazil on Wednesday discussed ways to help the developed world tide over the economic slowdown.

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/India-Brazil-talk-trade-ties-global-economic-slump/288778/

Good to see we're still doing some things right.

No one in their right mind will by a car called Tata. That is their first mistake, but i'm sure they will be selling cars real cheap.

"i have a Jag"

"i have a Mustang"

"i have a TaTa"

:bugeye:

Through tacit knowledge transfer....

o0h yeah, that and............................................... ...............................................

OK, seriously. I'm right about the name though. > Acura NSX.

Tata is buying Land Rover and Jaguar from Ford.

My friend likes her Tata Indigo better than American cars she has owned.

Tata intends to sell a new car the Tata Nano for US $2,500 per car.

Watch out Japan, Tata might start taking some global market share in auto's soon.

How do you produce and sell a car for $2,500? All the parts have to cost at least...how much does the engine alone cost? a door (with glass) has to cost minimum $200.

Indeed...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/graphics/2008/01/12/mftat2.jpg

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/motoring/graphics/2008/01/12/mftat2.jpg

Isnt that a scooter?

Scooter (motorcycle), a two-wheeled motorized vehicle with a step-through frame.

Scooter (stand-up), a two-wheeled motorized vehicle that is generally ridden in the standing position.

Mobility scooter, a motorized chair with three or four wheels that is designed for people with limited mobility.

--------------------------
Four wheel may be safer than two wheels, with respect to accidents caused by the driver. But these tin box cars are highly dangerous when collision occurs with trucks....

It was a joke..its not a bad looking car. i cant see that car being being sold for 2,500. If it ever makes it to U.S it would cost at least 10K

It was a joke..its not a bad looking car. i cant see that car being being sold for 2,500. If it ever makes it to U.S it would cost at least 10K
The Nano is not for the US market. It can't meet the requirements for sale in the US, or other Western nations. For instance, it has only one windshield wiper, two seat belts, no air bags, etc., etc., etc. It has a two cylinder 633cc engine with 33 hp and a top speed of 56 mph. The one pictured in this thread is a deluxe version, not the $2500 standard version. The $2500 price does not include 'fees' or delivery charges from the factory. The standard version does not have an air conditioner (:D) nor, I don't think, a heater. It is very basic transportation designed for families that don't have transportation other than a motor scooter. For that segment, it should be a hit and very welcome.

India is a doomed nation with a majority of it's people still living in poverty. It is a Third world country and will always remain so unfortunately.

Tata is a good company. Unfortunately, Ratan still lives in the age of chivalry and does business honestly. So of course, he's treated like crap. Mittal is smarter and is the man to watch out for...
I had seen the following before and wondered if it was just politics or some people trying to get something for nothing. Has it been settled, SAM?
Trinamool Congress threatens to stall manufacture of Tatas' Nano

''Until farmers get back their land forcibly acquired for the Tata Motors small car plant at Singur, we will not allow the company to manufacture cars there,'' Leader of the Opposition in the assembly Partha Chatterjee told a press conference here.

Chatterjee warned ''if pressure is put, there will be trouble.''

Alleging that 347 acre was forcibly acquired by the Left Front government to enable Tata Motors to set up the plant, he said ''the matter is still sub judice.''

''We are warning Ratan Tata that he should not dare to go to the Tata Motors Singur plant without returning land to farmers who were forced to part with it,'' he said.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/PoliticsNation/Trinamool_Congress_threatens_Tatas/articleshow/2690331.cms

I had seen the following before and wondered if it was just politics or some people trying to get something for nothing. Has it been settled, SAM?

Its politics. Opposite political camps screwing the people on either side.

http://us.rediff.com/news/2006/dec/26guest1.htm