I havent looked into this, but...

By word of mouth, I heard that Brazil is switching from petroleum based fuels to alcohol based fuels for cars and trucks. Because they have a huge sugar cane industry, they can be completely self reliant and extremely efficient. The mixture is approx. 98% ethanol and 2% petrol.

This has many implications, not just economically. What factors play into this situation? If other countries follow suit, how will Western nations be affected? How can oil-producing nations use this to thier advantage?

Ill look into this more when I have time, but ive been very busy lately.

It doesn't sound sustainable. How much of this sugar cane is the result of slash-and-burn agriculture that destroys the rainforest?

brazil is not one big rain forest spidergoat

i'll reply to this thread explaining some stuff when i have more time

How much of this sugar cane is the result of slash-and-burn agriculture that destroys the rainforest?

Probably not that much. The cleared rainforest is most often used as cattle pasture. After a year or two of this, the topsoil all erodes away, since it is not proper grassland but rainforest, which has very thin topsoil. After that, the land is simply left fallow, since it is now worthless for any kind of agriculture.

The sugarcane is used to ferment, for burning fuel, and can be replanted (i think). My point doesnt have to do with environmental issues because oil users/producers dont think that way either. However, the emissions from cars that use this is H20, CO, and CO2.

My question regards business and economics. Car companies already have created cars for this market: ford, chrysler, GM, mazda... If America switches to this type of fuel and engine, will middle eastern countries be significantly impacted? Petroleum has many many uses, but gasoline and oil refining will be reduced.

Can each country become self reliant for fuel? Sugarcane uses alot of water. How can a country sustain its sugarcane productioin?

How will drunk driving increases be affected if we are using pure alcohol?

My guess is that only nations with good farming can benefit from growing crops for alcohol, sugar cane in tropical areas and corn elsewhere. It will impact the food world's food supply.

As far as impacting the oil industry, I think it will only reduce the rate of increase somewhat, but there is little that can stop the demand.

I'm sure that this ethanol will be mixed with additives and will be undrinkable. Isn't the flame from alcohol invisible? That might affect how accidents are handled.

Yes, but sugar producing plants arent too complicated to grow by the common man. Especially if its for fermenting and not eating.

You are correct that it will only impact the oil industry slightly because there are drawbacks. Corrosion of the engine will be a factor, so will availability, purity, and adaption. The availability would be restricted to urban areas, i believe. Purity would always be questionable, but easily tested. Adaption would be the biggest problem that I can see. Car conversion or buying a new car to start off. Having to refuel more often. The cars dont go as fast, making freeway driving difficult.

However, the cost is my main point here. A common person can process ethanol with very low cost. Living out in the boonies would make a good case for conversion for everyday driving atleast. Of course tractors and machinery would not be candidates for this. Even to have a motorscooter running on ethanol would seem a feasible and selfreliant idea. One can refuel at home with his own product. Price fluctuations would not have any impact as one would grow his own fuel. This seems reasonable especially with heightened tension with countries with oil reserves.

As an American citizen, the thought of war on my land would bring many changes to my life. I would like to be able to have atleast a backup mode of transportation. This is why I think ethanol is conceivable.

I can probably brew enough beer by myself for me and my friends. I can probably make a bottle or two of whiskey in a couple months, but I doubt I can distill enough pure alcohol to run my car on (or even my motorbike) on a daily basis.

The ultimate solution to any future oil crisis is here (http://www.sciforums.com/showthread.php?t=54637).

It doesn't sound sustainable. How much of this sugar cane is the result of slash-and-burn agriculture that destroys the rainforest?As far as I know:
none, zero, zip, etc.

The market for the alcohol is in the cities, like Sao Paulo (third or fourth largest in the world.) where I live. Fortunately for me, because the fall harvest is filling the storage tanks, the cost of driving on alcohol is once again much lower than on gasoline (Today I paid R$1.27/liter vs R$2.49 for gas to fill tank of my flex fuel VW Gol car.)

Most of the cane is grown not far from the cities (say several hundred miles away, or less, on average.) The closest rain forest to me is significantly more than 1000 miles away - probably closer to 2000, but I will not bother to look it up for you. I doubt that you would change your tune even if I did because:

You have been posting all sort of nonsense, about sugar cane being "unsustainable" (despite it having fueled many cars, some for 30 years.); that it requires too much fertilizer (despite it is a grass, although some may be used to increase yields - any grass grows faster if you fertilize it.); that it gives no net energy, etc.

It is time you either stopped or became informed.

....Corrosion of the engine will be a factor, so will availability, purity, and adaption. The availability would be restricted to urban areas, i believe. Purity would always be questionable, but easily tested. ... Having to refuel more often. The cars dont go as fast, making freeway driving difficult....Partially correct. In response to the 1973 oil crisis, the military government then in power mandated that Brazil convert to alcohol powered cars. There were corrosion problems, for the first 5 to 10 years, but they have been solved for at least 20 years.

I think almost all "gas stations" in Brazil have at least two pumps, one is giving alcohol. The other giving "gasoline," but it is really also between 15 and 25% alcohol*. There is no "regular" gas in Brazil - with this much alcohol it is all "high test." Approximately (I would guess based just on personnel observation) that only 10% of the stations in the city sell diesel (Diesel cars are still illegal) but on the highways which are always full of trucks** and along them, most stations sell diesel. (Some truck stops are very large: 16 pumps, half dozen showers hot food, etc. and some have ladies selling other services as well.)

You are wrong about the car running on alcohol not going as fast. Alcohol actually makes slightly MORE horsepower than gas, at least in the modern "flex-fuel" cars tha can use either in any mix. Obviously, the fuel injectors must stuff more fuel in on each cycle as alcohol does have less energy per liter and thus you are correct that a tank full of it will only take you about 75% as far as a full tank of gas would. (Once when traveling cross country late in the evening, I did pay more and put gas in the tank.) I do not know, but think that with alcohol you can stuff more in, get higher cylinder pressure without the "knocking problem" and that is why alcohol performace is better than gas - more HP. Brazil now has alcohol power planes and their perfomance is better, fuel cost less, and maintance is lower cost also. "Scientific American" gave that new crop duster plane a design award - I can't find the ref or the thread I gave the details in. Brazil also makes the world's most efficient airplanes in the 50 to 150 passenger size. See Embraer's web page.
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* The government modulates the percentage that is legal to make sure that alcohol is available for the older alcohol only cars. (The "gas" is always at the upper limit as alcohol is much lower cost. Often the gas at many off brand stations is above the limit as the station owners add paint thinner etc., which is not taxed to boost profits. Many owners of cars that are designed for gasoline only also put some alcohol in for the same reason. This is legal, but not if the station owner does it.) the percentage is currently 20, but I expect it will go back to 25% very soon now that there is plenty of alcohol again. - Government must do this to avoid tax revenue loss - station owners will all be adding untaxed paint thinner etc. if the "gas" from the refinery has only 20% - At about 30% alcohol in a car designed for gas, you do notice a performance fall off.
Once I bought some really cheap (about half the normal price) "gas" for my 4 wheel drive, gas only, LADA (a Russain "jeep"). Gas in Russia is low quality and normally the LADA can burn anything, but that "gas" must have been 2/3 paint thinner and even my LADA would barely run on it. (There was enough real gas in the line,. etc. so you get a mile or two away from the station before you know you bought paint thinner. - Never again will I buy gas that is too cheap to be true.
**Last year the line of trucks, full of soybeans, waiting to get unloaded at the main port was 16miles, yes 16, long. (Brazil ha not invested in railroads for years. - The best railroads are owned by the companies that export iron ore. - Brazil is world's largest ore exporter - has 25 year contract with China who will expand that port, etc.)

I think my criticisms have been rational and if I don't know something I phrase it that way. This may work for Brazil as long as they have the resources, but I doubt it can replace the net energy the modern world derives from oil.

Oil is also unsustainable, despite it having fueled vehicles for decades. Modern agriculture is unsustainable, despite having fed an ever increasing population for decades, since it depletes aquifers and poisons oceans and rivers, as well as consuming fertilizers which come from oil.

I'm not opposed to alternative fuels in the least, but perhaps they are not the panacea some folks may wish them to be.

I think my criticisms have been rational ...I did not challange your rationality - only your facts. A false conclusion usually follows from false initial assumptions, but I agree it can be completely rational.

... I doubt it can replace the net energy the modern world derives from oil. ...With this I completely agree. Conservation, greater energy efficiency, smaller cars, lower room temperatures (sweaters, like the English do), public transport, abolishing air conditioning in department stores*, high-rise apartments** instead of suburban sprawl, etc will be required before RENEWABLE biofuels can can pick up the load.
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*That may boost sales but is not good for the health. - 25 degree F sudden temperature changes the human animal did not experience during the evolution that designed it etc.
**travel by electric elevators, trollies, subways, even fly-wheel buses that recharge electrically at each stop, etc instead of fosil fuel cars. Note that high rises also make high band width internet and telecommuting to work very feasible and cheap. The building I live in is one of seven in a complex with an internal park (inside the fence - Brazil has many poor and security problems, at night.) It has 24 floors - about average in Sao Paulo. This, in addition to alcohol, is why Brazil is energy self sufficient, in fact an exporter of energy {as aluminum also since 80% of electric is cheap hydro-power***.}, more so every year as more cars convert to alcohol (80% of all sold now).

If you want to speak of UNsustainable - speak of the US infrastructure. Time has already run out for the US. - It can not convert to non-suburban sprawl infrastructure it needs in even a decade and before then the dollar will not buy the oil US needs to sustain the infrastructure it has. The military can not provide any solution. - Reason for the fact that Iraq's oil output is now about half a million BPD LESS than pre-invasion explains why.

***Just now I realized that I have never seen an electric stove in Brazil. Not in anyone's house or the department stores - I bet they are illegal! - Probably to make the electric power server only the uses that gas can not. I will ask some about this. Only the US has let the market place make all the infrastructure decisions****. For example in Europe gas cost at least $6/gallon, taxes force high rise / high density development of near city land (except for the very rich) etc. - Soon US will pay dearly for this mistake.
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****Actually that is not true. US tax deduction on home mortgage has made it almost an economic necessity for a rich, childless, lady lawyer married to a successful business owner to buy the 6 bedroom mansion they have no need for so they can reduce their taxes. - What "planning" the central government in US has done is thru the tax laws, and very stupid results have been achieved that only made the current US problem worse. They will also understand this better when the housing bubble bursts, and rising gas prices will help to burst it.

Billy, you missed one other key to reduction of energy usage in your list of wear sweaters, have no air conditioning, etc.

I expected you to say that people should move into caves and underground holes. And turn off the lights after 9pm. No lights would be even more savings.

Then, all those resources wasted by building houses, being warm at night, by reading could be saved.

...I expected you to say that people should move into caves and underground holes. ...Actually there is a lot positive to say about under ground living; however, my point is that the suburban life style is doomed. Even the generation that follows me is already experiencing a lower standard of living. My grand children, who live in the USA, and all of their generation will not be able to afford even the life style of their parent's (my children) generation.

Have you noticed that the good jobs are leaving to lower cost areas? That just driving to your suburban home is taking a greater percent of your pay check etc.? It unfortunately, energy efficiency and conservation is not a question of choice anymore, but necessity, without which they will live significantly less well than their parents did.

Just a quick update: Alcohol continues to fall with the fall sugar cane harvest being converted. Today I paid R$1.18/ liter. At same station, gas had dropped some too, it was down to R$2.39/L.

OK, at what price per liter of gas will you sell your home and move into a cave?

By the way, what is the typical price for a nice, 2 bedroom cave in Sao Paolo these days. You know, a cave in pretty good shape, one that does not need a lot of work.

The cleared rainforest is most often used as cattle pasture. After a year or two of this, the topsoil all erodes away, since it is not proper grassland but rainforest, which has very thin topsoil.I always wondered about that.
Why do tropical rain forests have such poor quality or thin topsoil???

high-rise apartments** instead of suburban sprawl, etc will be required before RENEWABLE biofuels can can pick up the load.
The US has both suburban sprawl AND far more high-rise living than you'll find in europe , which also has their share of suburbs. Many european countries have laws against tall buildings because they obstruct the historic architectural beauty of their ancient cities. In Germany they have more small towns and fewer gigantic cites after the american model.

All cities are three dimensional by degree.

The US has both suburban sprawl AND far more high-rise living than you'll find in europe , which also has their share of suburbs. Many european countries have laws against tall buildings because they obstruct the historic architectural beauty of their ancient cities. In Germany they have more small towns and fewer gigantic cites after the american model. All cities are three dimensional by degree.I think you are entirely correct.

My concern with 2D suburban sprawl refers to the ring around the central city*, where in most cases more than half of the population lives. In the US this ring is typically neighborhoods of individual homes on half acre lots. In most of Europe more than half of the population lives in either multi- family units or in individual "row houses" with less yard than a US "ranch style" house occupies. Also, and very important, when one is talking about fuel consumption, is the more 1D vs 2D type of "suburban" development more common in Europe, Especially in Northern Europe, where significant fuel is used for heating. 1D development makes district heating possible and that doubles the efficiency of fuel used for electric power generation.

There is some "co-generation" by factories in US but essentially zero district heating. In US, heating your home and providing it with electric power use fuel independently, but in much of Northern Europe, District heating is used to get both functions from the same fuel. Especially in Sweden and other lands where there is more "central planning" of development than IN US.

Perhaps I have not been as clear about his as I should have been. - As I read your post, I get the impression that you think I would disagree with it, but it is accurate, just not directed to my point.
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* Your point about more small villages is a good one. In them the average distance between work and home is much less. (An transversed less commonly by private car. It is rarely transversed by a US style gas-hog car.) I am trying to focus on the poorly designed infrastructure of the US as a major problem, which will take a couple of decades to change. - The collapse of dollar and US economy, burdened with this inappropriate infrastructure, can come much faster than that.

In a few threads, perhaps this one, I have told that Brazil has hundreds (perhaps a thousand?) of small family farms now raising the weed, mamona, which you probably call the caster oil bean plant, but I am not sure it is exactly the same, for its oil content. One post even included a reference with a photo of an easily transported (shown on back of small truck) processing plant that was contained in a "half module" of a standard shipping container. This economica activity is centered in the NE of Brazil where many very poor live, basically on aid from the central government as the land is poor and without rain for much of the year, so the chance to produce the feed stock for bio-diesel was more of a social program than a serious effort to replace petroleum based diesel in Brazil.

A few days ago, PetroBras announced a serious effort based on soybeans. I do not understand the chemistry, but it appears that the current refining of crude oil has a stage which uses hydrogen to remove the sulphur contained in the crude. The soybean oil will be added at this stage. They are thus calling it "H-biodiesel" or just "H-bio." Oil removed from cotton seeds will also be used, but the quantity available (currently 300,000 meters cubic/ year) is small compared to soy oil.

Obviously this new demand for soy oil will increase its price, making food for both animals and people more expensive than if H-bio were not developed. IMHO, Brazils needs to restore (invest more) in its rail system which has been badly neglected for years with the result that huge, diesel-using, trucks transport the soy (and other crops) to the oil processors, like Bunge & Cargill, and to the ports for export, mainly to China last year. At peak of the harvest, the line of trucks, on side of road leading to the port, can be 20 miles long!

PS - Yesterday, when filling my flex-fuel car with 100% alcohol, I paid R$1.14/ liter and one dollar bought R$2.40. As there are 3.7L / gallon, this works out to US$1.76/ gallon. I hope the price / liter gets back to R$0.99/L as it was about a year ago, but for that to happen, the global demand for sugar will need to drop a little.

Would some of you who keep stating that alcohol is more expensive* than gasoline, like to comment?
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*It is, IF produced from corn during the limited growing season in Iowa on expensive land with high cost labor.