So if the reports are true, which the US gov't says they aren't, the UBL left the country nearly two weeks ago. Where would Bin Laden go in Pakistan, and what can the US and the Pakistanis do if he's there. Where would he go after Pakistan or Afghanistan? Personally I think he'll head to some African country with a whacked out dictator ruling there, or he'll go to Iraq and maybe slip into Saudi Arabia, destabalizing the area.
Right now he's kind of like a bad penny in a shuffle game. No one wants him at their home for the attention he will bring. I think his days of free wheeling and dealing are coming to an end. It is a matter of time and where they run him down at. His options are becomeing fewer and fewer as the days go by. No one wants the US to be knocking at their door saying, "You have "x" days to give him up",
True, but this may not be gov't sponsored escape. Anyways, he's probably gonna get a bomb dropped on his turban in Tora Bora sometime in the next week. Bin-Laden-ala-bar-b-que for X-mas.
If UBL does move to Pakistan or Kashmir, chances are that he will be staying at one of his cells and keep moving between cells to avoid detection. After all, if the cells are operating in 60 countries, that the US says they do, then hiding may not be ruled out. While it is easy to hide in that part of the world, his tallness could be his undoing.
I honestly believe that Osama Bin Laden (OBL), is actually in the Tora Bora mts of Afghanistan. We should have more info soon, last night (Friday, US) al-Qaeda fighters surrendured, and will probably be interroigated about OBL's whereabouts. I think it is likely that Binny may have been killed by an airstrike already, or he will be dead within a week. Odds are he will be killed, unintentionally, not captured. Either way I think OBL's days are numbered.
Not so fast...according to one TV report, UBL has a cave complex that can be isolated from the rest of the world for six months but will still be operational. Our bunker busters will have no effect because of solid mass of the mountain and the depth it needs to go. So, I say, he is either gone before the Tora Bora campaign or he is holed up under a tactical nuclear bomb proof shelter.
I highly doubt that Binny's caves are that good. If they are once the inhabitants are sealed off, demolitions teams can rig up explosives in a way that would destroy the mountain, without a nuclear weapon. It has to have ventiliation, odds are that isn't filitered adequately. All we have to do is find the vent shafts and pump it full of nerve gas. No more soldiers in the ground. This would give new meaning to "smokin' 'em out."
Unless the nerve gas is rendered inert with time that might not be such a good idea. When I was in Germany, where I was stationed there were holes that opened in the ground revealing where tunnels once were during WWII. It was a constant hazard anytime you were off the roads and walking in wooded areas. So bad in fact that the woods were off limits. Once I found such a hole where I had walked previously many times as it was a short cut to town. I tried to find bottom with a small tree. I got no where near the bottom as I found out when I gave up and dropped it in hopes of hearing where bottom was. Not a sound was reflected back, no splash, no noise of hitting anything. It was a very easy place to fall through and not be heard of again. Most nerve gas is heavier than air. As such it will pool in the low places. That would be a death trap in such conditions.
Afghanistan is the size of Texas. Finding the rabbit holes is like searching for the proverbial needle in a hay stack. It will take months if not years to account for these small holes in the ground that could be camoflaged. It does not snow that part of the mountatin. And thermal imagery still will have a tough time to cover the area. All in all it is tough. The easy part is, once a map of the locations/bunkers is found or created, then we can bomb to our hearts content and hope, we destroyed those bases. Even a nuclear weapon is difficult. We had underground nuclear tests in Neveda. It will take a lot to destroy a large piece of mountation. We can not even disable millions of anti-personnel mines out there using shock blast technology....
