Abbott and Costello explain the government's 'Accounting' System... COSTELLO: I want to talk about the unemployment rate in America. ABBOTT: Good Subject. Terrible Times. It's 9%. COSTELLO: That many people are out of work? ABBOTT: No, that's 16%. COSTELLO: You just said 9%. ABBOTT: 9% Unemployed. COSTELLO: Right 9% out of work. ABBOTT: No, that's 16%. COSTELLO: Okay, so it's 16% unemployed. ABBOTT: No, that's 9%. COSTELLO: WAIT A MINUTE. Is it 9% or 16%? ABBOTT: 9% are unemployed. 16% are out of work COSTELLO: IF you are out of work you are unemployed. ABBOTT: No, you can't count the "Out of Work" as the unemployed. You have to look for work to be unemployed. COSTELLO: BUT THEY ARE OUT OF WORK!!! ABBOTT: No, you miss my point. COSTELLO: What point? ABBOTT: Someone who doesn't look for work, can't be counted with those who look for work. It wouldn't be fair. COSTELLO: To whom? ABBOTT: The unemployed. COSTELLO: But they are ALL out of work. ABBOTT: No, the unemployed are actively looking for work. Those who are out of work stopped looking. They gave up. And, if you give up, you are no longer in the ranks of the unemployed. COSTELLO: So if you're off the unemployment roles, that would count as less unemployment? ABBOTT: Unemployment would go down. Absolutely! COSTELLO: The unemployment just goes down because you don't look for work? ABBOTT: Absolutely it goes down. That's how you get to 9%. Otherwise it would be 16%. You don't want to read about 16% unemployment, do ya? COSTELLO: That would be frightening. ABBOTT: Absolutely. COSTELLO: Wait, I got a question for you. That means there are two ways to bring down the unemployment numbers ABBOTT: Two ways is correct. COSTELLO: Unemployment can go down if someone gets a job? ABBOTT: Correct. COSTELLO: And unemployment can also go down if you stop looking for a job? ABBOTT: Bingo. COSTELLO: So there are two ways to bring unemployment down, and the easier of the two is to just stop looking for work. ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like an economist. COSTELLO: I don't even know what the heck I just said! ABBOTT: Now you're thinking like a politician!!!
Classic Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! The food stamp CC hides the horrid conditions in the USA. Because we don't see the lines - we don't see the reality. University graduates are returning to live with their parents with tens of thousands of dollars of debt, some 100s of thousands. Because we don't see the lines, we don't see the unemployment. Literally 10s of millions of Americans are on anti-depressants and other 'calming' drugs. Because we don't see them in the streets we can continue to ignore reality. But, reality has a funny way of catching up. When it does, then what? Because things are going to get worse and as long as we refuse to let the banks fail we're going to be living in a depression.
So you would prefer to see people starving and in soup lines because the esthetics better suit you? So you would much rather see unemployment lines and food lines, ok. Unfortunately the real numbers don’t support your contentions; that is why you need to rely on the bogus numbers shown in your graphic. None of this stuff is new to you, your errors have been repeatedly pointed out to you. Well in your case Michael, you have been successfully eluding reality for a very long time now.
Yes Joe, the government has no political agenda to lie to the people about unemployment. Riiight.... oh, and certainly not in an election year. That's when politicians are the most honest and upfront with the public Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! You know what's ironic, is that you Joe are here (yet again) acting as an apologist for the government. If you care to look into WHY ShadowStats was started it was BECAUSE the numbers given by the government were simply useless to the people who actually need to use them. Which was the WHOLE POINT in the Abbott and Costello routine! The Government is ALWAYS bullshiting the public. And as people expect more and more FROM their government the bullshitting gets worse and worse and if taken to the absolute you end up with Socialistic Distopia's like North Korea where people think they're living the good life while those in South Korea are starving to death. Alternate Unemployment Charts Walter J. "John" Williams was born in 1949. He received an A.B. in Economics, cum laude, from Dartmouth College in 1971, and was awarded a M.B.A. from Dartmouth's Amos Tuck School of Business Administration in 1972, where he was named an Edward Tuck Scholar. During his career as a consulting economist, John has worked with individuals as well as Fortune 500 companies. Although I am known formally as Walter J. Williams, my friends call me “John.” For 30 years, I have been a private consulting economist and, out of necessity, had to become a specialist in government economic reporting. One of my early clients was a large manufacturer of commercial airplanes, who had developed an econometric model for predicting revenue passenger miles. The level of revenue passenger miles was their primary sales forecasting tool, and the model was heavily dependent on the GNP (now GDP) as reported by the Department of Commerce. Suddenly, their model stopped working, and they asked me if I could fix it. I realized the GNP numbers were faulty, corrected them for my client (official reporting was similarly revised a couple of years later) and the model worked again, at least for a while, until GNP methodological changes eventually made the underlying data worthless.
Well do you have any evidence the government is fudging the employment numbers? No you do not. But that doesn’t stop you from promulgating this and many other conspiracy theories. Where do you get the notion that I am a government apologist? Please do show me one instance in which I have apologized for something our government has done? You will never find that evidence, because it doesn’t exist. So you are claiming that the employment numbers released every month by the US federal government are ignored by private industry? Then how do you explain the extraordinary market reaction in response the federal unemployment numbers? I use a number of economic and financial calendars and federal unemployment releases are very clearly noted – down to the hour and the minute. But you won’t find a single calendar that lists the release dates for your “shadow stats”. Are the professionals who use the federal employment numbers also subject to some vast conspiracy? So, the creator of Shadow Stats makes a living catering to people like you – amateurs and right wing politicos. There is a whole industry out there doing similar things - catering to the same market. As for the founder’s credentials, I don’t find them particularly impressive. And I have hired consultants for Fortune 500 companies. If I am going to hire an economist, I want a PhD. Not that it matters, it doesn’t change the fact that his numbers are garbage and ignored by professionals.
Joe, Firstly, only someone interested in using the data would pay for a subscription to ShadowStats. He's selling data that he compiles. Obviously no one would buy the data if it wasn't useful for their economic business models and thus he'd be out of business. He made it clear that he only got interested this line of research because the standard models were no longer working because the underlying government data was useless. He's certainly not the only person who says the numbers coming out of Washington do not add up. Secondly, what do you think about the government discounting people who given up looking for a job? It's exactly the same now as when this skit was composed. People WANT a job but have given up looking for work because they've looked for years without being offered a job. They don't have the means to start their own business. The government counts them as 'employed'. You don't find that perverse? What about a person who works a few days a month at McDonald's? The government counts them as employed. Again, misleading and perverse. Lawmaker Calls for Change to How Government Calculates Unemployment Excerpt: Ever wonder how North Koreans can continue to support their government and think the rest of the world is literally dying, while right out their windows people are starving to death in the streets - even to the point where last year there were some cases of young children being lured away, killed and turned into soup. See, the people dying in the street, they probably have an idea that yeah, something is wrong here. The ones living off the fat, in their tower, looking out their window.... well, they've made out well from the system. To admit the system is wrong or evil or immoral would be to admit they are immoral. And, we all know most people are not going to be that critical of themselves. But, don't worry, reality will catch up - one way or another. The noose is tightening around the necks of those at the top - I am sure many are starting to shit themselves. I wonder how Helicopter Ben feels now Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! haha... he was so sure of himself and his idiotic Keynesian models that he stated he could toss money from a helicopter. Well, it didn't work did it Benny Boy? Now what? Now you're trapped and the noose is tightening. Interesting times Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
And just who is buying his data? It certainly isn’t the professional business community. As I told you before, this guy peddles his services to right wing conspiracy minded folk like yourself. There is a whole industry making a very good living selling this BS. This guy is totally ignored by business professionals. The “standard models” do work. That is why the government provided unemployment numbers are eagerly awaited every month by people in the business community and the only ones paying attention to this guy are ignorant partisans. Well you seem to find anything not in line with your biases as “perverse”. That alone speaks volumes. Additionally, the government doesn’t discount people who have stopped looking for jobs nor does it not count the “under employed”. But here is what the government doesn’t do, it doesn’t count employed people as unemployed much to the chagrin of people like you. This is nothing but more gibberish Michael.
Let me make sure I have you correct: The BLS 8.2% unemployment figure includes discouraged workers (less than one year) as well as long-term discouraged workers (those discouraged for more than one year)? Is that what you're saying Joe? Because that was the whole point in the skit. So? Bernanke must be shitting himself, looking down at his silly little Lamarckian theories on economy. It's quite funny how John Maynard Keynes theories seem to fit-in so perfectly with the times. Just as e = MC^2 was able to describe the small separate from the big, all of a sudden Keynes had a little economic theory - the little could be described separately from the big. And thus the big from the small. Yup, some people are just fantastic like that - they're natural born propagandists. He was known as a great self promoter. And right there in the middle of the Depression. All these idiot politicians and here comes Keynes: Oh, I can solve your problems, right here - it's "Science", just like e = MC^2. Yes, Bernanke must be pulling what little hair her has - out. The Great Bernanke Last of the Lamarck's.
No, I suggest you read more carefully. I said the under employed are reported by the government (BLS) and they are reported as under employed. They are not reported as unemployed as your Shadow Stats does because they are not unemployed. This is more gibberish Michael. Just because you prefer your partisan articles of faith to empirical evidence, it does not follow that empiricism is defective or wrong or self promoting.
